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Cambodia’s ruling party is set to elect a new prime minister, Hun Sen. approval his eldest son in office.
Hun Sen, who has ruled Cambodia for some 37 years, announced on December 2 that “Hun Manet is one of the prime minister’s candidates and he is receiving support from his father.”
His election paves the way for a political line-up, with critics claiming it reflects Hun Sen’s fear of losing control when he loses control. The Prime Minister of Cambodia is one of the longest-serving leaders in the world, having ruled Southeast Asia for nearly 37 years. one-party state, leading to the closure of a major opposition party in 2017 and harassment of political opponents, civil rights groups and the media.
“I will support and teach [Hun Manet] to be able to give up all his energy, “said Hun Sen about his son last year. If he can’t act like his father, he can get 80 to 90 percent of me. The second is big decisions. ”
While expected to hold the highest office in the country, the 44-year-old Hun Manet currently does not have any government responsibilities and has more experience than politics. A student at the United States Military Academy in West Point, quickly woke up through the military, overseeing the negotiations for a border dispute with Thailand in 2011, at just 33 years old. In 2018, he was promoted to commander of the Cambodian army, having served second in the country’s military. His limited political experience is embedded in the party armor, serving in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party and the powerful Representative Representative Committee and as head of the youth wing.
Even if the CPP were behind Hun Manet, he would not take up the post until 2028, as his father has shown a reluctance to transfer power soon. Hun Sen announced on December 2 that he would remain in office for another 10 years, and confirmed on December 6 that he wanted to remain prime minister in the 2023 general election.
Investigators have suggested that Hun Sen’s decision to allow his son to become a heir several years before the real change posed a serious threat to Hun Manet, especially since there were indications that some in the CPP did not support the move.
“I would have thought the 2023 election was a good time to change power,” said Lee Morgenbesser, a senior lecturer at Griffith University in Australia, saying Hun Sen is now backed by CPP, security apparatus, business and “does not face much political opposition.”
“Signing that he will transfer power to Hun Manet in 2028 at the risk of placing a target on his son’s back. If some political leaders are upset with Hun Manet’s decision, they now have ample time to challenge him,” Morgenbesser said.
‘Party leadership disagrees’
Lao Mong Hay, a former Cambodian political analyst, said Manet’s replacement was possible but not guaranteed, and recent conflicts between Hun Sen and Interior Minister Sar Kheng are proof that “party leadership did not support the nomination of a child.” wake up. ”
For a long time seen as Hun Sen’s most powerful enemy within the CPP, Kheng did not take part in the high-profile political rally that approved Manet. After giving up speaking, Kheng promised to support the party’s nominees, but did not name Manet directly.
To allay any concerns, Lao Mong Hay expects Hun Sen to engage in “horse trade”. In addition to appointing his son as prime minister, Hun Sen also wants to revive CPP officials at an upcoming meeting. He has planned to appoint a treasurer, made up of only politicians under the age of 60 who will hold senior positions. These roles can be used to calm opponents.
While many believe Manet has gone to the prime minister’s office, few expect him to comment on Cambodian politics. When asked about what he expected from Manet as leader, Lao Mong Hay instead referred to the political plan his father had built.
“The party-government system is so stable that it protects the interests of the current ruling party and its colonizers so it is very difficult to introduce new ideas as the new ideas will inevitably affect those aspirations and will unravel the whole system,” he said.
In a recent article, student Kevin J Doyle learned about Hun Sen and Manet’s work on television, saying that Manet was trying to “watch” his father by making a friendly, non-political person on the internet.
Doyle, a former editor-in-chief of the now closed Cambodia Daily newspaper, analyzed some 2,400 photos posted on Manet’s Facebook page, and found that about 20 percent of the photos showed him hugging or being too close to young or old. . About 12 percent showed him taking selfies. In comparison, only 5 percent were related to elections or campaigns.
Doyle also said he imitates his father’s example of advertising “gift-giving services” on the internet. “Based on his father’s gift-giving practices, Hun Manet also demonstrates a commitment to the political and economic system in which the CPP client base is established,” he wrote.
Chinese influence
Astrid Noren-Nilsson, secretary of the Second Cambodian Empire, said she did not expect anything “very different” from Manet in terms of “leadership style” or “political” liberation.
He also said, like Hun Sen, Manet is “flexible and obedient” and can “start his own leadership” and make little changes to meet political opponents. But with so much time left for this change to happen, it is “impossible to know” who these permits will be.
Noren-Nilsson predicted that Manet would no longer focus on radical change in the West, relations between Cambodia and the US had deteriorated in recent years, including among their military allies.
Based on the “influential growth of China”, US he announced disarmament and early December handed down sanctions to Cambodian security officials. In 2016, Cambodia launched a year-long military exercises with China, banning the same exercises by the US a year later. Meanwhile, Manet, who is also the commander of the Cambodian army, met with Russian security envoys in December and promised to extend the war.
While Cambodia continues to invade China, Noren-Nilsson said he hoped to become a revolutionary in the world of sports, and said his experience could lead to negotiations that were difficult under his father’s leadership.
While Manet spent most of his youth in New York, Hun Sen struggled with English and grew up in a Cambodian rural village during the Communist uprising and bombing campaign in America.
“His choice in the world will depend on the perception of realpolitik and the state of the world at any given time. If this were to bring alliance with Western powers, then his training would help make the exchange more open than before,” Noren-Nilsson said.
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