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On October 31, US President Joe Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rome, a few weeks later for a similar summit. Earlier in the month, a long-running diplomatic crisis highlighted strained relations between the two countries.
U.S. Ambassador to Ankara David Satterfield and nine other Western diplomats have been threatened with dismissal after they filed for release from the prison of Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala – which the Turkish government saw as intruding.
The Biden-Erdogan meeting – the second of this year – showed that communication channels were still open. But there is no denying that the Turkish-American relationship is very low.
From the Turkish side, the idea that the US is an unreliable ally and seeks to weaken Ankara has been growing and feeding anti-Americanism over the last five to six years. Washington’s 2015 plan to have Kurdish weapons in Syria affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara – and its allies in the West – see a “terrorist” organization, and claims that the US participated in an attempt to overthrow the government. of Erdogan in 2016. all have promoted this view.
From the US, Turkey’s idea of strengthening close ties with Russia has raised concerns. Turkey’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft weapons in 2017 sent shockwaves through Washington, which has been concerned about Russia’s resumption.
The supply of high-quality weapons to Ankara in 2019 brought sanctions to Turkish officials under the Counting America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) a year later. More importantly, it led to Turkey’s withdrawal from the international alliance that ushered in a new generation of warplanes, the F-35. Erdogan’s recent statement that the Turkish government wants to buy another S-400 group of weapons has angered Washington.
So with all these conflicts between them, is Turkey and the US about to end? Probably not. Neither Biden nor Erdogan are pushing for his resignation. Indeed, the Turkish government hopes to form an alliance with Biden officials to purchase 40 F-16 fighter jets and 80 state-of-the-art weapons to upgrade old fighter jets. Turkey intends to bring in its own F-16 air force. It also wants to repay the $ 1.4bn it paid for the work of the F-35.
At a time when all neighbors, from Greece to Russia to Iran, are stepping up their military might, Turkey will not be able to stay behind. In the quest for independence, Ankara is still relying on Western military expertise. It also commits itself to NATO which, in an unpredictable period and with Russia building its military force on the other side of the Black Sea, remains critical to national security. Not surprisingly, many Turkish citizens continue to contribute to the membership of the Alliance.
Its declining domestic economy and the depreciation of the lira, which has lost 80 percent of its value over the past decade, further demonstrates Turkey’s reliance on global financial markets. Divorce by the US will not succeed in economic stability. Had the ambassadors been fired and had a serious problem with the West where it happened, foreign investors would have lost a lot of lira assets, sending the money down for free.
The US is also in need of, in the words of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, “his so-called friend”. Turkish troops are still vital in NATO’s eastern part of Russia, where Russia has a serious problem. Turkey’s sale of Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine, which is now being used against Russia’s official separatists in the Donbas, demonstrates its value.
Ankara has also supported all NATO missions aimed at strengthening allies in the Black Sea, including regular exercise and navigation from US and other member states. Finally, Turkey’s role in the Middle East and North Africa, especially in Libya where it competes with Russia and Syria, is another reason why Washington should not destroy Ankara. The same is true in Afghanistan where Ankara has not stopped preparing to take part in air security in Kabul.
The US and Turkey are working in the gray area. The union is bound by a thread, but it is about to announce its end. Transactionalism is a system of the day and perhaps both sides will work on negotiations and issues.
Biden and Erdogan, therefore, will be able to work together in a limited way in NATO. Agreement on the F-16s is not possible even, despite opposition from Congress. The US will not be shaken by Turkey’s new operation in Syria if the rules are inconsistent with those established between the two ground forces. However, it will continue to focus on Turkey and Russia and, more importantly, China. Biden should also speak more on Turkish politics, as opposed to Trump. There should be more controversy in the future.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Al Jazeera.
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