Unsecured: bitcoin is the same, not the currency

Welcome back to Unhedged. If you have any ideas (and because the current topic is bitcoin, most of you), email me: robert.armstrong@ft.com.

Bitcoin is justice, not money

Years ago I was hired, with no financial skills, as a graduate student in a hedge fund. I asked my former boss how I could prepare. He said: “Get an accountant and learn to use the keys now. That’s all there is to it. ”

He was right. I’ve been thinking ever since about the future flow streams of high-value, high-end prices, and discounted prices. Any other lighting tool I have found since the second season.

This is why I am not free to do what I have to do today: write about a few things, which are more than what my HP-12c (millennials can now go to look at what is that?). The price of bitcoins fell by 29 percent at one time today, a drop of $ 225bn. Here’s an individual price for Wednesday (with last post on Tuesday included on the left) (more from Bloomberg):

Plus, the market and the whole market seem to be connected. From Refinitiv:

Something has to be said. The reason for this is the old expert’s opinion of what is happening. I’m waiting for an email (I guess?).

Bitcoin is widely regarded as a fair go for a company whose only wealth is a reliable but uncompromising technology – this is not true, but it is a fitting illustration. Many people talk about this in this way. Pano For example by Bill Miller, a prominent stockbroker, at Barron a few weeks ago:

“Bitcoin is the solution to the economic crisis as there has been an economy, under the control of the government in terms of revenue and banking, which has led to a lot of corruption, seizure by countries, falling prices… The best way to think about this is if Gold is an analogue, bitcoin is digital. It is far more valuable than gold as a treasure trove… in a minute, at a very low cost, and it is obvious. ”

If bitcoin technology works, then, it will be a new currency, and one that can serve as a major asset: inflation is safe, it can be moved without controversy and the government cannot afford it.

Marc Andreessen, a well-known economist, writes a few years ago, to know parallel points:

“The bitcoin book is a new way to pay. Anyone in the world could pay anyone in the world a small amount of time by changing the ownership of the inheritance. Set a profit, transfer it, the recipient earns a profit, without the necessary authorization, and in most cases, there is no penalty.”

And when money is converted, the price goes up. Miller again:

“There are about $ 10tn worth of gold in the world, some of the gemstones, some in central banks, some in ETFs. The Bitcoin market is around $ 1.1tn. I’m sure bitcoin can go up 10 times under certain conditions, which can be as valuable as gold. ”

Wise people have to admit, however, that bitcoin technology still does not work here. This should be obvious. Modern prices suggest that bitcoin is a major convertible to currency; meanwhile, when the worst things happen, I run across the border to Mexico with nothing but bitcoins.

Most importantly, the price to trade in bitcoin is usually high and low, and is only accepted in a few places. Bitcoin is not a currency, but the idea that one day it will become a currency is the source of its current value.

The value of shares in a company whose only tool is uncertainty is volatile (and they do, for the most part) which doesn’t matter. This is just a fad on the market, unless there are new indicators that the technical economy is on the decline.

And many believers make mistakes. They think as the price of bitcoin goes up, that alone proof that technology is about to work, and become money. No! Many items, from baseball cards to Château Lafite cases, are expensive. This does not make them money. It makes them rich. Wealth is a good thing, but the value of what is said comes from the possibility that it becomes a kind of thing, which is money.

Evidence of money laundering may include people who do more, in more places and less often (if there is any evidence that it is a topic for another day).

A final point. The only reason for the low price of bitcoin on Wednesday is that the Bank of China said it “should not and should not be used as currency on the market”. Is this proof that bitcoin technology doesn’t work, and it becomes a currency? Probably, but keep in mind that an important part of a bitcoin request is that the opinions of other people especially governments should not be important. However, current instability suggests that they do.

There is a simple way to resolve this controversy: by pointing out that the current volume in bitcoin is pure, meaningless, without any connection to technical expertise.

Read it carefully

If you’ve followed my post in FT, you know that I also wear a low-key hat, and I write regularly. section on the style of men. I always thought that my two types of writing were similar, because it required serious consideration of human nature. I don’t wear a style hat most of the time at Unhedged, but once in a while I manage to push myself.

The reason: last week in the New York Times, there was a very good example of writing style, A piece of Aatish Taseer how Eastern and Western cultures have met in recent history of perfume. If you are interested in fashion history, read on.