How real is the threat of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | | Conflict Issues

Kyiv, Ukraine – In early January, the Kremlin could launch a “short and successful” war in Ukraine, a senior military expert told Al Jazeera, as world leaders and international organizations test the possibility of such a conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants his troops to reach the Dnieper River, which divides Ukraine, seizes access to the Crimea and re-introduces water on a dry island that was cut down in 2014, causing a major crisis. drought, said Ihor Romanenko, retired officer and deputy commander of the Ukrainian army.

The Blitzkrieg will not only include tens of thousands of Russian troops deployed on the border with Ukraine, east of the capital Kyiv, and Crimea in southern Ukraine, he said.

It could include attacks by Russian troops from Belarus allied with Moscow, northern Kyiv, and Transdnistria, a secessionist region, a pro-Moscow Moldovan region that crosses the southwestern border of Ukraine, he said.

“The most effective way is to start fighting on all sides at the same time,” Romanenko told Al Jazeera.

Ukrainian officials say Russia has recruited 115,000 troops near its border in recent weeks.

According to Romanenko, there could also be domestic “riots” involving dissatisfied oligarchs, Kremlin-backed politicians and a large Russian-speaking Ukrainian population in eastern and southern Ukraine – while Moscow restricts the supply of natural gas that heats up almost every Ukrainian home. and building houses.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that the country’s richest oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, was “being dragged” to a riot to overthrow the government.

Akhmetov denied the allegations.

‘Hysteria’

If a major conflict erupts, one-third of Ukraine, 43 million French nationals, will be affected – and the war must be fastened, no later than one month, to prevent civil unrest in Russia, Romanenko said.

And while many Western nations have promised to help Ukraine with weapons, the Ukrainian people “understand that no one will fight us,” Romanenko concluded.

Some in the West agree.

Secretary of State of the United States Antony Blinken warns Moscow about “big money and its consequences” after meeting his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Sweden on Thursday.

He said US President Joe Biden could meet Putin soon “to speak directly.”

The first and to date, only Biden – Putin at the top happened in June, less than two months later Russia again reduced the number of troops to more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border.

But a few months later, European and Ukrainian fears of Russian “violence” resurfaced.

Toward the end of November, US troops warned European Union allies of a possible “rapid push” for Russia to Ukraine from several locations, Bloomberg. reports.

The Kremlin denied the allegations.

“This chaos is made by deception,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters on November 21. “This is absurd and inappropriate.”

Proponents of her case have been working to make the actual transcript of this statement available online.

“In a panic, Zelenskyy’s party is trying to find additional resources to deal with the opposition,” Dmitry Perlin told Radio Sputnik on Thursday, adding that Ukraine “must think twice, even three times, before making military decisions” to deal with Russia.

Raising ante?

Some analysts disagree and say Putin is simply trying to force the whites – especially the US – to listen to his demands.

“We are not talking about an uprising but about an uncertain, culturally oriented generation to meet the masses of forcing the whites to start new negotiations with Yalta and Russia,” Kyiv expert Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.

He cites a 1945 conference in the southern Crimean city between Soviet leader Josef Stalin, UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill and US President Franklin D Roosevelt.

The summit marked the post-World War II turning of Eastern European countries into Soviet rule.

Today, Moscow sees its relations with Ukraine as part of its larger, larger conflict with Western nations – as well as the expansion of NATO in the east to the former Soviet Union.

“Russia is talking about red lines, but it is referring to the western evidence of non-shipping of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, which is tantamount to acknowledging that Ukraine is part of Russia’s special interests, if not all, of Russia,” said Pavel Luzin, Russia. The Jamestown Foundation, a think tank in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera.

Putin says the West is ignoring Russia’s “red lines” by playing exercises in the Black Sea and sending high-tech weapons to Kyiv.

They want “legal proofs” that NATO will not recognize Ukraine as a member.

“We will not allow our historical sites and the people around us who live there to be used against Russia,” Putin wrote in a July article, reiterating his claim that the Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.”

Is the economy broken?

If the attack were to take place, Western nations could impose sanctions on Russia – and both could destabilize Russia.

It would be “suicidal” for Russia to launch an attack because the US and EU will stop buying Russian hydrocarbons and fertilizers and will abandon Nord Stream 2, a new gas pipeline to Germany awaiting confirmation, Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany. Bremen University said.

Russia will lose two-thirds of its foreign exchange earnings, while U.S. oil companies will rehabilitate their shale oil and natural gas treatment to compensate for losses from Russia, he said.

“The existence of the Putin regime in charge of oil supplies will be in doubt,” Mitrokhin told Al Jazeera.

Another important factor is the resilience of the Ukrainian military.

In 2014, the Ukrainian military was unarmed and disillusioned, while Russian-backed separatists in southeastern Donetsk and Luhansk seized Kyiv weapons and deposed two “oppressive and economically dead” People’s Republics “.

But seven years later, after the war against the separatists, the Ukrainian army was trained – and with good, well-made weapons. at home or delivered by Western or Turkey.

“Putin is increasing the level of unrest because Moscow has realized that Ukrainian troops are also holding all US, Turkish weapons and, more recently, German weapons, and will not be too weak in the face of Russia’s invasion of ordinary weapons,” Mitrokhin said.