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Where have all the workers gone and will they come back?

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When Manchester’s unpopular restaurant announced a reception in July last year, it was surprising to receive 963 programs in one day – not the 30 or so expected.

It was there. “It’s very different now,” said Carol Cairnes, chief of staff at the D&D London restaurant. His 40 odd diets account for one-tenth of his subscriptions last July, and some responsibilities appear difficult to fulfill.

“Our advertising campaign often attracts about 50 people; nowadays we are lucky if we have five,” he says, adding that of the five, only one or two were eligible.

Welcome to one of Covid’s most striking facets: rising unemployment rates in rich countries, even millions still working.

As economists discuss the causes and consequences, and how long it will take, we can all wonder how things have changed so suddenly.

One obvious sign is a change in bait, bonuses and benefits that would have seemed silly a few months ago when employees faced Covid’s massive massacre.

The hot Australian state of Queensland has launched a “paradise service” campaign that he gives $ 1,500 (£ 820) plus funded travel to attract tourism workers suffering from unemployment.

In the US, Amazon offers it $ 1,500 signature bonuses – plus an additional $ 100 if you can be vaccinated – and McDonald’s joins several major US groups raise pay employees.

In London, a restaurant on the corner from my office offers customers £ 100 vouchers if they can recommend a new job. Another nearby restaurant offers its employees a bonus of up to $ 2,000 if they can do the same.

Fellow employers still struggle to recruit people. The competition for top job applicants is “red hot right now”, says Neil Carberry, head of the UK’s Recruitment & Employment Confederation. “I’ve never seen a market for professional consultants like this,” he said last week.

Why is this happening now? One of the things: the resumption of the economy in some areas raises the need for businesses that reopen at once from the closure. “Everyone is hiring people right away,” said Tony Wilson, chief of the UK’s research team at the Institute for Employment Study in the UK. “It’s very strange.”

Can infiltration and infectious diseases cause workers to evade? Experts disagree but it is clear that in areas such as hospitality, people have left the industry to take care of their homes, supermarkets and other places with better hours and sometimes better pay.

Some countries have added to the crisis, which could only lead to further decline.

There has been an exit of EU motorists since Brexit in the UK, where many industries rely heavily on workers across the region. Before the UK left the EU in 2020, 72% of D&D restaurant partners in London were from the EU while 6% were from other countries and 22% were from Britain.

Strict border regulations are being criticized for the lack of employment in Australia and New Zealand, where one group of dairy farmers warned this month that the stress of declining staffing was so severe it could lead to the deterioration of “human and animal lives”.

For small businesses, the struggle to find work has been overwhelming.

“It’s dangerous,” said Nick Ward, a Brighton chef in the UK who was desperate to find a job until he paid his colleagues to help him on busy days. He is not alone. A few minutes after we spoke last week, he sent an urgent message from his colleagues asking if Ward could come and work for him that day, which he did not do.

It is possible to sympathize with those in the Ward while I also enjoy seeing people working in stable jobs, unexpected hours earning less money. As Tony Wilson of IES pointed out, some industries have been enjoying a consumer market for 15 years. “There has been a change in energy,” he says. It may be temporary, but as long as it persists, employers have no choice but to change.

pilita.clark@ft.com

Twitter: @alirezatalischioriginal



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