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The Lib Dems and Labor should forget the look of the Tories

The author is a psephologist who has written on UK elections since 1992

The success of the Liberal Democrat in North Shropshire were fulfilled, as the new MP Helen Morgan he agreed, with the help of Labor allies who cast him a smart vote as the best candidate to defeat the Tories. The result was a major defeat for Boris Johnson.

It was unusual, but the opposition hopes to lower the Conservative seat in the next election depends on understanding its meaning.

The case for the Lib Dem technical vote in North Shropshire relied on a heated debate. It turned out that, although there was an important part of Labor in the seat, Labor was less than a Conservative vote in a two-party contest – which resulted in Sir Keir Starmer’s candidate not winning.

But even the Anti-Labor Tories will see Lib Dem voting as an election manifestation; if they are joined by enough voters with an idea of ​​Work they can go beyond that day. This means, in a recent, interesting example, a amount of 34 percent to the Lib Dems, who skipped Work.

The only time Labor was able to secure seats from the Conservatives for a 20 percent change was between 1994 and the 1997 general elections; There has never been a history of short-term elections between the two major parties in terms of results in North Shropshire.

In a by-election, the Lib Dems could reach a point where Labor could not.

In the difficult time around voting day there were some online irregularities between the Lib Dems and Labor. The Lib Dems seemed to have the right to sit down and hate Labor; Staff made false claims about their canvass return. There were divisions in Labor groups over soft walking or campaigning in North Shropshire, and the results were inconsistent.

The groups do not align well with the left and right – some of the biggest enemies of the Lib Dems are to the right of the anti-Corbyn. And both parties think twice – that the others are dangerous, but the voters who follow them are lost, deceived by the part of the nation that must return to their homeland.

As North Shropshire points out, this insult – directed at each other and by voters – is not necessary when the electorate can correct it on their own.

The scale change we saw in North Shropshire put almost every Conservative seat in the various Lib Dems constituencies in electoral conditions. In the general election, the swing is very small, but what happened Thursday, is inside Chesham and Amersham, shows that the new front has opened up for the Conservatives, which puts many of them at risk.

There are 27 Conservative seats (at the current limit) that could fall to the Lib Dems in a 10 percent movement. Considering that the share of Conservative votes in 2019 was the longest since 1979, when the Lib Dems were the lowest, we can expect another positive change. With a goal, as well as a smart vote from Labor and Green sympathizers in these areas, many are in the public eye.

North Shropshire also shows that there is a way back for the Lib Dems in the many seats they lost in 2015, many of which are the same. Lib Dem are councilors, and voters who have a long-standing relationship with the party. Southwest chairs such as Newton Abbot and Somerton & Frome could also be interesting, as they were in the 1990s when there was a political alliance between the Lib Dems and Labor.

The advantages of a Lib Dem recovery are that it may be easier to form a Labor government. The current electoral system favors employment; to get more people someday, a change that is needed by the astronomy – Starmer may need a popular vote in 1997 to get the lowest number of parliament. A healthy Lib Dem gain rate can do even more scales between Labor and Conservatives. In the meantime, clever Lib Dem voters who want to retire could also make the mountain more restrictive and uncontested.

The reason for this may be that Lib Lib and Labor ‘preferences forget the basics and look at the big picture.




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