Mitengo yanyumba yothawa: ‘opambana ndi otayika’ kuchokera ku mliriwu

Ku Akron, Ohio, mitengo yazinyumba yakwera ndi 10.1% chaka chatha. Ku Albany, New York, chiwonjezeko chakhala 11.7 peresenti. Albuquerque, New Mexico, awonanso kuwonjezeka kofananako kwa 11.6%.

Ndipo amenewo ndi mizinda yaku America kuyambira ndi A.

“Mutha kuponya chibonga pamapu ndipo sizingakhale zovuta kuti chafikira pati chifukwa msika wanyumba mwina watentha,” akutero Ali Wolf, wamkulu wazachuma ku Zonda, kampani yofufuza msika wamsika ku California.

Pamene mliri wa coronavirus udayamba kugunda chaka chatha, lingaliro loyambirira la andale ambiri lidali loti mavuto azachuma adzagawidwa. Chochitika chapadera ichi chidayenera kukhala chowongolera kwambiri. Koma pamene maboma m’maiko otukuka adalowererapo kuti ateteze ndalama m’njira zomwe zathandiza kwambiri anthu omwe ali ndi ntchito zokhazikika, mavutowa agwera mosiyana ndi ogwira ntchito osinthasintha, omwe amalandira ndalama zochepa komanso achinyamata. Mwadzidzidzi osatha kudya kapena kuyenda, mabanja olemera agwiritsa ntchito chaka chatha kuti apulumutse ndalama zawo.

Chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi chomwe banja lapeza ndi $ 28.7tn mu 2020, malinga ndi lipoti lofalitsidwa sabata ino ndi Credit Suisse, lomwe likuwonetsa kusagwirizana kwapadera pakati pa kukula uku ndi chuma chambiri.

Mabanja olemera adayendetsa ndalama zaku mphepo m’mabizinesi azinthu zachuma, Zikwangwani za Louis Vuitton ndipo Ambuye achi Dutch. Koma koposa zonse, ali nawo adatsanulira ndalama kugula nyumba zazikulu komanso zabwinoko.

“Anthu samayembekezera kuti izi zichitika momwe zidachitikira. Palibe amene anatsekera mpaka miyezi ingapo kuti pali opambana komanso otayika, “akutero a James Pomeroy, katswiri wazachuma ku HSBC. Tsopano, kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo ya nyumba kumayimira “vuto lalikulu – vuto pokhudzana ndi kukhazikika kwachuma koma vuto lalikulu lazachuma komanso pachuma”.

Chodabwitsachi ndichapadziko lonse lapansi. Zina mwakuwuka kwakukulu kwakhala ku US, komwe deta yomwe yatulutsidwa sabata ino ikuwonetsa kuti mtengo wapakatikati wamitundu yonse yazinyumba udakwera 23.6% pachaka mu Meyi. Nyumba zambiri ku US tsopano zikugulitsa pamwambapa mtengo wofunsira, ndi mwayi womwe udalandiridwa munthawi yochepa kuchokera pamndandanda kuposa momwe udatengera mliriwu usanachitike, malinga ndi a Daryl Fairweather, katswiri wazachuma ku Redfin, wogulitsa malo pa intaneti.

Koma ngakhale ku Japan ndi ku Italy, komwe anthu okalamba amachepetsa kufunika, kukwera kwamitengo kwachuluka. Ndondomeko yazandalama zosasunthika zomwe zikubweza ngongole yobwereketsa, kukwera kwamitengo yakunyumba tsopano kumawerengedwa kawiri m’maiko ambiri otukuka, kuchokera ku Sweden kupita ku South Korea, Canada kupita ku Netherlands ndi New Zealand – ndikuwonjezeka kwakukulu komwe sikukuwonekera pamitu yayikulu, koma ku Madera, mizinda ing’onoing’ono ndi madera akumidzi.

Banki yayikulu ku Norway Adatero sabata yatha kuti Oslo adawona kutuluka kwa anthu kwa nthawi yoyamba mzaka 20 mu 2020, pomwe ogwira ntchito kumidzi adasunthira kuchokera kumafelemu apakati kupita mumzinda kukhala nyumba zina zazikulu kunja kwa likulu.

Ku UK, atolankhani atolankhani a atsogoleri a G7 amakumana ku Cornish resort ya Carbis Bay kudzoza kuphulika kwatsopano kwa kusaka nyumba kudera lokongola lakumwera chakumadzulo, komwe msika uli “wopatsa”, akutero wogulitsa a Henry Pryor. “Wothandizira wina adachoka ku London kuti akachite nawo ntchito ku Cornwall ndi mphindi 40 pagalimoto yomwe adauzidwa kuti atembenuke chifukwa idagulitsidwa kale,” akuwonjezera.

Kukulitsa kusiyana

Mphamvu yakufunika kwa nyumba idalandiridwa poyamba – ndikulimbikitsidwa ndi maboma aku UK, Netherlands ndi mayiko ena aku Australia, omwe adapereka ndalama zamsonkho kuti chuma chiziyenda bwino. Luiz de Mello, yemwe amatsogolera pakufufuza za nyumba ku OECD, akuti msika wogulitsa nyumba ndi wofunikira, panthawi yomwe kukonzanso kwachuma kukuchitika, chifukwa “zopinga pakuyenda kwanyumba zimakhala zopinga pakubwezeretsa chuma chathu”.

Koma msika wothawawo uli ndi nkhawa ziwiri kwa omwe amapanga mfundozi. Choyamba, mitengo imatha kuzungulirazungulira, ndikupangitsa kuti chuma chikhale pachiwopsezo pakukonzekera kwamsika komwe kungachitike chuma chapakhomo.

“Sindikusangalala ndi kukwera mitengo kwa nyumba chifukwa kugulitsa nyumba ndi malo omwe ndi chisonyezo chotsimikizika kwambiri, chisonyezero chachikulu kwambiri cha. . . kuwonongeka, ”atero a Adam Posen, Purezidenti wa Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Chachiwiri, kukhala ndi nyumba kumatha kukhala kosavuta kwa achinyamata ndi ogwira ntchito ofunika omwe anali atagulidwa kale m’malo ambiri mliriwu usanachitike – kukhazikika kusiyana pakati pa mibadwo, ndi iwo omwe atha kapena ochepera thandizo la makolo.

“Ntchito zomwe tikuziwona makamaka ndi anthu omwe ali ndi gawo pamsika wanyumba. Ndi omwe ‘ali nawo,’ atero a Neal Hudson, ofufuza nyumba ku UK.

“Chaka chilichonse mitengo yazinyumba imakwera kusiyana komwe kumafutukuka pakati pa omwe ali ndi zomwe alibe, achikulire ndi achichepere,” akutero a Pomeroy, ndikuwonjezera kuti “masamu opezera katundu” anali atakula kwambiri chaka chathachi, chifukwa achinyamata adavutika pantchito zotayika ndi zosokoneza maphunziro zomwe zitha kupeza phindu m’moyo wawo wonse.

Nkhani ziwirizi ndizofunika kwambiri kwa opanga mfundo. Kukwera kwamitengo kumalimbikitsidwa ndi kuwonjezeka kwenikweni kwa kufunikira kwa nyumba, kuchokera kwa ogwira ntchito kunyumba omwe akumva njala ya malo. Koma palinso zisonyezo zakukayikira kwachuma kuyambira mitengo yamafuta m’misika komwe kugula kuli vuto kale.

“Zomwe tikuwona nthawi zambiri zimachitika masiku ano, wopambana yemwe adzapindule nawo m’manyumba ambiri nthawi zina si banja. Ndi bokosi la positi ku Delaware, yemwe ndi wogulitsa ndalama yemwe sanawonepo nyumbayo, akufuna kuti nyumbayo ikhale ndi nyumba ndipo adzaigula kuti agwiritse ntchito ndalama zake ndi kubwereka, “a Robert Kaplan, Purezidenti wa nthambi ya Dallas ku Federal Reserve, atero. pamwambo sabata ino.

Blackstone, kampani yodziyimira payokha yomwe yakhala woyang’anira wamkulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, yati sabata ino ilipira $ 6bn kuti ipeze Home Partners of America, yogula komanso yogulitsa nyumba za banja limodzi.

A Kaplan adati akukhulupirira kuti yakwana nthawi yoti banki yayikulu yaku US iganizirenso za momwe ingathandizire msika wanyumba kudzera kudzera $ 40bn pamwezi kugula kwa mabungwe kubweza kubweza, omwe amapanga gawo lalikulu la pulogalamu yake ya $ 120bn yogula ma bond.

Banki yayikulu yaku Norway idanenanso sabata yatha kuti posachedwa akhazikitsa mfundo zandalama pang’ono kuti athe kuchepetsa kukwera kwamitengo yakunyumba, ndipo New Zealand idasokonekera ndi ziphunzitso chaka chino powonjezerapo gawo palamulo la banki yake yayikulu, kuilamula kuti itenge mitengo yazanyumba ikazindikiridwa mukakhazikitsa mfundo zandalama.

A Christine Lagarde, Purezidenti wa European Central Bank, nawonso anafunsidwa za nkhaniyi – yomwe yakhala ndodo ya mphezi yotsutsa Ndondomeko yazachuma ya ECB – pakumvetsera ku Nyumba Yamalamulo ku Europe sabata ino.

Poyankha, Lagarde adati “palibe zizindikilo zolimba za nyumba yolipirira ngongole mu euro monsemo”, koma adaonjezeranso kuti panali “kusowa kwa malo okhala” m’maiko ena komanso m’mizinda ina.

“Kulekanitsidwa pakati pamitengo yakunyumba ndi zochitika zachuma zochulukirapo panthawi ya mliriwu kumabweretsa chiopsezo chokonza mitengo,” adatero, ndikupempha kuti mfundo za macroprudential – monga malire adziko lonse pobwereketsa ngongole yanyumba – “apangidwe mosamala kuthana ndi zoopsa zakudziko”. Atafunsidwa mwezi uno za kuopsa kwa mfundo zandalama zomwe zimapangitsa kuti nyumba zizikhala bwino, Lagarde adati zabwino zomwe zisankho za ECB “zimaposa zovuta zina”.

Misonkho ya olemera?

Ngakhale nkhawa za mabanki apakati ndikukhazikika kwachuma, mitengo yamitengo yayikulu yakulitsa mkangano wandale pazomwe zingachitike chifukwa cha mliriwu pakusagwirizana kwachuma.

Ku Berlin, obwereka adayenda m’misewu mwezi watha akufuna kuti alandidwe katundu wa ogulitsa malonda, patangopita nthawi yochepa khothi lamilandu yaku Germany adagamula kuti chiphaso cha mzindawu sichinali chovomerezeka.

Ku UK, mabungwe opereka ngongole apempha boma kuti lilowererepo kuti lithandizire kuthetsa ndalama zokwana mapaundi 360m zomwe zatsala pang’ono kutha chifukwa cha mliriwu, atakhala kanthawi kochepa pantchito yochotsa anthu mwezi uno.

Ku US, ngakhale kukwera mitengo kwakhala kopindulitsa kwa eni nyumba ambiri, kwakhala kopweteka kwa omwe akufuna kupeza ndalama zochepa komanso omwe amagula renti.

“Mabanja omwe adakumana ndi mavutowa popanda mavuto azachuma akuchepetsa nyumba zomwe zikugulitsidwa, kukweza mitengo ndikuwonjeza ogula omwe alibe ndalama zambiri,” lipoti ochokera ku Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Study yomaliza mu June. “Nthawi yomweyo, mamiliyoni a mabanja omwe adataya ndalama panthawi yomwe amayimitsa ntchito ali kumbuyo chifukwa chobweza nyumba zawo komanso atsala pang’ono kuthamangitsidwa kapena kuwonongedwa.”

Mavuto a eni lendi nawonso ndi ovuta, ngakhale kupumula kwakanthawi kwakanthawi kuchokera kwa oyang’anira a Biden sabata ino ndi lingaliro lawo lokhazikitsa ziletso zadziko lonse kuthamangitsidwa mpaka kumapeto kwa Julayi. Pafupifupi anthu 4.2m mdziko lonseli anali ndi nkhawa kuti athamangitsidwa kapena kuwonongedwa m’miyezi iwiri ikubwerayi, malinga ndi kafukufuku waposachedwa kuchokera kuofesi yowerengera anthu ku US. Urban Institute, tank-think, ikuchenjeza kuti zolemetsazo zidzagwa mosiyana kwambiri ndi anthu akuda, amwenye komanso aku Latin America komanso anthu ena amtundu.

Komabe, Posen anena kuti kuwonjezeka kwa chuma chanyumba chaka chathachi kudzathandiza anthu aku America omwe ali ndi zaka zapakati kuti agwirizane ndi omwe ali pamwamba pazogawikazo – pomwe amachoka kwa osauka kwambiri. Mitengo yayikulu yamnyumba ndi chifukwa chimodzi chomwe ambiri aku America aliri bwino lero kuposa momwe analili coronavirus isanachitike. “Kodi kumeneko ndi kupambana chifukwa chofanana kapena kupambana chifukwa cha kusalingana? Zimatengera komwe mukukolera malire, ”akutero.

Mabanki apakati amayenera “kudalira mphepo” ndi miyeso monga malire pangozi yobwereketsa ngongole, akuti, ngati akufuna kupewa kuwira koopsa pamitengo yanyumba. Koma akuwonjezera kuti njira zothandizira kusalingana zili ndi mfundo zachuma; iwo omwe adapeza phindu lochulukirapo ndi mliriwu tsopano akuyenera “msonkho wogwirizana” wothandizira kulipira.

“Ngati mumasamala zakusalinganika muyenera kugawa mwachindunji – sipadzakhala deus ex machina yemwe akusamalirani.”

Malipoti owonjezera a Martin Arnold ku Frankfurt ndi George Hammond ku London