The growth of Covid disease, the new evolution of coronavirus and the resurgence of epidemics are threatening the rise of the eurozone economy, with fewer people going shopping, dining out and going to the movies, a much more spectacular show.
The slowdown is another setback for the European Central Bank, which is also expected to address inflation of 4.9 percent in November, the highest rate since the single currency was formed two decades ago.
Although the eurozone grew sharply in the three months to September, thank you very much for the increase in consumer spending, the frequent indications that follow restaurant reservations, the sale of radio video tickets and other relocations show that the refund was lost in November.
“Travel in the eurozone began to decline even before governments announced new Covid bans,” said Bert Colijn, an economist at ING.
Austria entered its fourth Covid closing on November 22, when other countries from the Netherlands and Belgium to Germany, Ireland, Slovakia, Italy and the Czech Republic have also struggled to cope with the rising tide of disease.
The threat of Omicron’s diversity has also led to the closure of people in Germany, after the National Academy of Sciences. he printed the paper advising Berlin to impose restrictions on public and private meetings, including those who have protested.
However, even in countries like Spain, where health has become more stable, consumer spending is also declining.
Across the eurozone, shopping malls, bars, restaurants and entertainment venues declined sharply in November, according to Google mobile data showing a decline in public transportation and more time spent at home.
The eurozone recovery indicator, a trend measure published by Oxford Economics, has also declined sharply since June, when OECD’s OECD weekly economic tracker, which is based on keywords related to spending and the active market, changed dramatically. most eurozone countries.
One amazing report shows the reservation of German restaurants down below their November 2019 standards.
On the positive side, economic activity has not deteriorated as much as it did in earlier times of serious illness.
“This shows that self-defense strategies or voluntary changes in practice are still limited and that fear of the virus has not been strong,” said Colijn of ING.
In addition, although areas with HIV / AIDS such as hospitality may be affected, “this has not been the case with the rest of the economy,” said Silvia Ardagna, an economist at Barclays.
Nonetheless, video revenue on the eurozone’s largest economy fell by almost 20% by the end of the third week of November compared to last week, according to Box Office Mojo, which tracks office costs.
Hotel reservations also declined sharply, as Sojern’s travel experts’ exhibitions show, leading to a radical change in the autumn. Airline numbers dropped similarly in November after months of recovery.
Although the economic impact of epidemics has been relatively low compared to previous illnesses, Ana Boata, an economist at Euler Hermes, predicts that economic growth in the eurozone will fall by 0.6 percent in the last quarter of the year from 2.2 percent in the third quarter.
“But it’s not a bad growth,” he said, but “a delay in recovery”.
“The labor market is recovering rapidly and there are many jobs left over,” added Boata. It is a matter of “time” before growth comes to an end.
However, the discrepancy between the economic growth that is triggered by Covid’s tightening and Omicron’s risk, as opposed to rising inflation caused by job losses and job losses, poses various challenges to the ECB.
“If Omicron seems to be too bad to impose strict sanctions, we think the consequences would be cheap,” Simon MacAdam of Capital Economics wrote to clients Wednesday. “But with the worsening. . . reduction, restrictions on domestic work can lead to long-term inflation, ”he added.
Jay Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve this week expressed his support for the immediate withdrawal of funds from the Fed. procurement program. But “some central banks may be waiting and seeing,” Boata said.
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