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Europe can withstand the Covid winter, economists say

Prohibition of migration to a large number of new coronavirus cases in the EU is expected to have less of an impact on growth than in previous waves because they target a small segment of the population: those who are not vaccinated.

Last winter, the eurozone was restored economic decline As the number of epidemics increased, government officials introduced more restrictive measures.

In recent weeks, Covid-19 cases in Europe have taken place he woke up Up to 14 high days for nine months and in some countries – including Germany, Austria and the Netherlands – they have reached the show. This has cast doubt on the economic performance of the region.

But economists say a return to strict curfew is not possible now with nearly two-thirds of the EU population receiving full immunization coverage, meaning that the death toll and the number of caregivers have not been as high as disease.

By focusing on the recent ban on vaccinated people who have not been vaccinated, they believe that governments can prevent further economic woes, as well as encourage those who do not. skeptical to finally get a jab. On Sunday, Alexander Schallenberg, Austrian Chancellor confirmed that the government was forcing the government to establish a national closure for those who have not been imprisoned, beginning Monday, adds: “We need to increase the number of vaccines. It’s a disgrace. ”

Katharina Utermöhl, an economist at Allianz, commented on how the new Covid-19 economy will affect Europe’s economy: “In the meantime we hope there will be a food crisis but not a crisis.

“It will be a bad year again [in-store] Christmas sale, but more is going online and we think restaurants, tours and lodges will continue to do well. “

Shops, restaurants and leisure centers have been losing customers since the recent Covid-19 operation. The slowdown in trade and eurozone entertainment recently plummeted before the epidemic, and remained at the top of last winter, according to Google Mobility data.

This has led to a dramatic decline in expectations for short-term growth of the eurozone economy in the last months of 2021. But many economists predict that the economy will shrink rather than collateral. European Commission last week prediction Eurozone growth will fall from 2.3 percent in the third quarter to 0.8 percent in the last quarter.

Economists believe that the main reason for the decline is a reduction in manufacturing, as well as a sharp rise in inflation, which is detrimental to people’s income. Eurozone prices fell 13 years to 4.1 percent in October.

“I do not think the restaurant will be empty, because the virus is only a small part of it,” said Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg. “The biggest risk factor for growth is oversupply.”

He also said that the proliferation of new viruses, as well as new laws being introduced in some countries to prevent the spread of vaccines and cases, could be “self-regulating” by encouraging more people to be vaccinated.

Austria and Germany have already failed to find restaurants, gymnasiums, movie theaters and playgrounds for those who have been vaccinated or who are immune to the virus – except for those who have recently been tested.

A person displays a QR code for Hellbrunn Advent Magic Christmas Market in Salzburg
A person displays a QR code for Hellbrunn Advent Christmas Market in Salzburg © Barbara Gindl / APA / AFP via Getty Images

The Netherlands is planning to adopt the same “2G regime” after a three-week closure in which many public events and restrooms are forced to close and non-stop restaurants and shops are closed in the evening.

“Today we are bringing a message that is unflattering and far-reaching,” said Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, on Friday. “The virus is everywhere, so it must be beaten everywhere.”

Schallenberg of Austria said the ban meant that one in three people in the country who had refused to be vaccinated could expect Christmas to be “unpleasant”. “I don’t see why two-thirds of them have to lose their rights because a third of them are procrastinating,” he said.

Following a recent spate of coronavirus attacks in Europe 2m last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was “deeply concerned” by the situation and urged a third of the German population who had not been vaccinated to “reconsider”. Merkel and local leaders will discuss what could happen around the world in the fight against the virus on Thursday.

In France, cases of coronavirus jumped 40 percent last week – described as a “warning sign” by President Emmanuel Macron. But Anne-Sophie Alsif, an economist at BDO France consultancy, said the recovery “remains very stable this year by 2022 because domestic spending remains very high, and revenue and exports are going well”.

Denmark, which in September became one of the first EU countries to lift all coronavirus bans, on Friday re-introduced its Covid-19 passport to enter most of the home and events.

But Helge Pedersen, an economist at Nordea, said he did not expect this to be “too much” because more people were vaccinated and Denmark had more tests.

Christian Fürtjes, an economist at HSBC, said the recent stabilization of the UK population, where the virus originated earlier than in Europe, said the same stabilization could happen in the country soon.

“When that happens then most governments will be very careful to re-open the doors, because they are afraid of the financial crisis and they know that many people are getting sick because of this,” he said.

Additional reports of Richard Milne in Oslo, Eir Nolsoe in Paris and Sam Jones in Zurich


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