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Delta COVID Surges for Europe Shows Can Be Corrected

Jonathan Brady – On Images / PA Images via Getty Images

England fans stand outside a shopping mall in London, July 11, 2021.

In recent weeks, Delta coronavirus has reported this ended hopes many Americans look forward to celebrating the “hot summer” and the end of the epidemic.

As health professionals warned in June, the highly contagious Delta-infected species is the most dangerous in low-vaccinated countries, filling hospitals and mortuaries and back to some of the darkest days of the plague. And unlike previous vaccines, the latest data show that some people who are vaccinated against the Delta virus – while they are more immune to the virus – can spread the virus to others. This has led the CDC to advise people to be vaccinated in areas with high prevalence of the virus She should start wearing masks again in public places.

Great questions remain about how “successful” cases are spreading in the Delta. But now there are growing fears that Delta will become an unstoppable force.

However, the message from experts who monitor the Delta waves in Europe is very encouraging, meaning that the most frequently used rulebook is still in its infancy: Vaccines and methods such as public shelter and mass prevention can reduce crime rates.

Meanwhile, some observers have done so I looked at what happened and Delta in the UK and India, where this change was first discovered, and is thought to be the US Delta crisis temporary, anything we can do to reduce its spread. In both countries, the sharp rise in crime was followed by the same rapid decline, meaning that the fast-growing Delta species often burns faster.

There are two major problems with this concept. First, if we just let Delta do it, the cost of burdened lives and hospitals will be high.

“By then, there has been a high risk of hospitalization,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, an epidemiologist at the University of Texas at Austin and director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, told BuzzFeed News. “It can damage your health system.”

Second, if you look at the diversity of Delta curves that appear across Europe, it is not clear that there are waves that are rapidly burning the Delta. And in countries that have seen rising and falling rapidly, social change – not Delta – is seen as a major part of the change.

Investigate the underlying causes of the Delta waves across Europe, and a message of hope emerges: Dangerous as it may be, the diversity of Delta seems to be simplified. Vaccination is our best tool, but the thinning methods that have worked against other non-infectious strains of coronavirus can still be very effective.

Delta waves in selected countries

Peter Aldhous / BuzzFeed News / Via Our World in Data / Johns Hopkins University CSSE / / GISAID

It makes no sense to compare Dangerous waves of Delta in India and those in the US, UK, and other European countries, experts say. Indians were not alone in their numbers especially do not shave at the time the Delta nation devastated the country in April and May, but monitoring and testing were inadequate so it is unclear whether the incidence of new cases indicates the number of people infected with the virus.

But if you look at the Delta waves that are still visible in European and US countries, the curves are very different. In the picture above, the UK and the Netherlands alone show a rapid rise and fall, while others have seen a gradual rise. In Germany, Delta curves are relatively simple.

Although the UK met with Delta species in the presence of others, mainly due to people traveling to India and from India, the period in which Delta established its rule cannot explain the differences between the other countries on display.

It is very difficult to distinguish the real reasons for the differences in the Delta waves of European countries. But the spread depends on the number of people with adequate immunity – whether vaccinated or coronavirus – and the mechanisms that promote the spread.

Of the countries shown, France has the lowest risk of vaccination, with 49% of its population having adequate vaccines (US is slightly ahead, at 50%). Currently, the UK is at high risk, with 57.3% of the population having adequate immunization coverage. The other European countries shown are all very high between 53.2% and 54.2%. As a result, the number of vaccines does not seem to reflect the significant differences observed in the Delta population.

One indication that the diversity of social values ​​has been a major factor is that Germany still exists carefully adjust the distance between people than most European neighbors, which require non-residents to be within 1.5 meters (approximately 5 feet) and to wear medical masks on public transportation and in stores.

Looking at the two countries that have experienced the rapid rise and fall of cases caused by the Delta diversity, meanwhile, gives a strong impression that large public conventions played a major role in each of those waves.

How football competition has fueled the UK Delta waves

The outbreak in the UK seems to be on the rise Euro 2020 football competition as fans packed into pubs and houses to watch the game. In England and Scotland, the rise in new cases came a week or two after the teams played their first game, only to return a few weeks after each team left.

The Scottish team was first released. But in England, the final whistle, the viewing parties continued until July 11.

The timing of the series of follow-ups is what epidemics experts can expect if the game’s visual effects drive the Delta waves. “It takes two weeks for a symptom to develop,” Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia in the UK, told BuzzFeed News.

Unlike previous surgeries in the UK, the cases were controlled by men, depending on the number of people who watched the game. And a a new study from Public Health Scotland supports the idea that the UK-based Delta tip was driven primarily by the disruption of chatter at sports events. “In fact, more than half of the cases reported in Scotland were attended by EURO 2020 or linked to a person who was present,” the researchers said.

Most of those infected were young and did not get very sick. This, combined with the rapid progress of the UK and vaccination in the past few months, means that the risk of hospitalization was less than one-fifth of those seen in the UK in January, at the peak of its waves with Alpha colors. And although COVID deaths have risen slightly, at present about 90 people a day are dying from the disease in the UK, compared to more than 1,200 at the height of Alpha waves.

The rapid change in UK cases has led some experts to expect an outbreak of the disease after “Freedom Day” on July 19, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson lifted the remaining coronavirus restrictions in England, allowing pubs and restaurants to function more efficiently. all requirements of the mask.

Neil Ferguson’s lawyer for Imperial College London predicted new cases can climb up to 200,000 a day, the seven-day number of new cases rose to less than 50,000 per day around before Independence Day. Over the past few days, the number of cases has dropped dramatically, and is unknown where the UK waves of Delta come from here.

Bsr Agency / Getty Photos

Passengers at Schiphol airport in Amsterdam, July 12, 2021.

Another European country that is rapidly growing and rapidly declining is the Netherlands. About 10 days after the Dutch government lifted almost all of the coronavirus ban on June 26, cases began to escalate. “It was an increasing number of cases among teenagers,” Tom Wenseleers, a biologist and evolutionist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, told BuzzFeed News. As in the UK, this did not mean a significant increase in hospitalizations or deaths.

However, on July 9 the country suddenly changed, closing its nightclubs and banning bars and restaurants to accommodate seats up to 1.5 meters away. “Most diseases have occurred in nightclubs and crowded parties,” the Dutch government said in a sentence announcing new restrictions.

The Dutch Delta eagle soared within two weeks of the new ban. If this radical change were to be driven primarily by the closure of nightclubs, it would provide some encouraging message that the Delta race could be found with a less dramatic change in behavior than a complete closure.

“The UK and the Netherlands need to be counseling to deal with despair,” Bill Hanage, a epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, told BuzzFeed News. “We have no doubt about the Delta race.”

It is not only Hanage who believes that what has happened in European countries shows that a little caution such as wearing masks in public places and avoiding large gatherings can make a big difference in the eyes of Delta nations.

“When behaviors change, with or without legal change, in a way that protects you from disease, we see such a change,” Meyers said.

Delta waves are the COVID vaccine in the US

Peter Aldhous / BuzzFeed News / Via New York Times / CDC

As the chart above shows, countries with low vaccines are still suffering from Delta waves.

As a result, over time, vaccination efforts in low-income areas remain the best hope for the Delta in the US. But when vaccinated prices a very rapid increase in the states that are experiencing the deadliest waves of the Delta, there is a long way to go – and people who were shot for the first time today do not receive strong protection for several weeks.

Asked in a press conference at the White House on Thursday what the US should do to tackle the Delta waves, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, agreed with the idea that improvements that have helped change previous operations will work. work.

“You do this right now in a nutshell,” Fauci said. “Limitations are the kinds of things you’ve heard from the CDC’s point of view, about hiding faces, to avoid having as many people as possible in the spread of the virus.”

“The end of all this is vaccination,” added Fauci. But if the US were to reduce its spread over time and increase vaccination over time, he said, “We will change the spread of the Delta. I can assure you that this will happen.”

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