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China is wrong to assume that the US is facing an inevitable decline

Chinese diplomats believe US is declining steadily. So reports Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic and International Study, a prestigious Washington-based tank. What has happened in the US in recent years, especially in politics, is consistent with this. An unwavering stable democracy did not elect Donald Trump – a man without all the requirements and potential – to lead the country. However, the idea of ​​a US downturn is exaggerated. The US has a large economy, especially economically.

For a year and a half, the US has become the newest economy in the world. That is the basis of his worldwide influence. So what does his new strength look like today? The answer is: good, even the competition from China.

The stock market is imperfect. But the money they sell to companies is an impartial assessment of their expectations. Last weekend, 7 of the world’s 10 most valuable companies and 14 of the top 20, were headquartered in the US.

Were it not for the Saudi Arabian oil spill, the five most important companies in the world would be professional giants in the US: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Labels and Facebook. China has two technology companies: Tencent (seventh place) and Alibaba (ninth). But those are the only companies in China that are in the top 20. The most important company in Europe is LVMH at 17. However LVMH is just a group of smartly designed products. This should be of concern to whites.

If we look at the technology industry alone, the US has 12 out of the top 20; China (and Hong Kong but excluding Taiwan) has three; and there are two Dutch companies, one of them, ASML, then manufactures the largest machines that produce integrated circuits. Taiwan is owned by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest computer manufacturing company, and South Korea is owned by Samsung Electronics.

Lollipop chart showing the Market of the 20 most important companies in the world on 23 Apr 2021

Life science is another important factor for your future success. Here are seven European companies (with Switzerland and the UK) in the top 20. But the US has seven of the top 10, and 11 of the top 20. There is also one Australian company and one Japanese company, but no Chinese businesses.

In general, US companies are the world’s leading producers and almost all of the most important non-US companies are in the United States.

The marketing process includes Chinese businesses, as well as non-Chinese companies Huawei, the world leader in mobile devices. China claims leadership in some areas, especially high-speed railways. But the sources of the technology were everywhere. Instead, China’s success in railways and several other areas is due to its rapid and scale construction.

Lollipop chart showing the market price of 20 of the world's most important companies in science / medicine as of 23 Apr 2021

Someone might say that the big US companies are no longer small. In addition, technical giants in the US have bought a number of companies manufactured elsewhere. Yet this is one of their strengths.

In addition, the US continues to lead the charge. According to To do, sales revenue reached $ 487bn from 2018 to the first quarter of 2021 in the US, as opposed to $ 379bn from China, UK, India, Germany, France, Canada, Israel and Singapore. Even as a GDP figure, US currency only comes after Israel and Singapore. In a global patent filter, China was first in 2019, with 59,045 against 57,705 by the US. But all the other top 10 countries were allied with the US. In addition to the US, their official recordings were about 175,000.

a bar chart showing that the US has the largest trading volume showing total revenue from 2018 to Q1 2021

Also important are universities. At one of the most well-known sites, 5 out of the top 10 and 10 out of the top 20 universities are American and only one is Chinese. Also, as Richard McGregor points out in his excellent book Xi Jinping: Backwardness, China’s dominance is growing. Such corrections do not promote initial stability.

For the most part, the US image is not just an economic downturn, especially when combined with its allies. Although China will soon have the richest economy in the world, it will not be the most profitable or intelligent. In addition, the US and its allies are expected to remain in the forefront for a long time, although the Xi regime does not threaten China’s economy.

Bar chart showing US business capital is significantly higher compared to GDP showing inflation as a percentage of GDP from 2018 to Q1 2021

The biggest threat to US jobs in the world lies in itself, not in China. If it chooses leaders who despise democracy, racism, globalization, science and ideology, it could go downhill. The failure of Republicans to reject the former president makes this possible. Yet this can be a result of self-imposed failure to create a coherent vision of a better future.

Chinese leaders must be right that the US is on the verge of collapse. But they can still be wrong in thinking that their correction is good. Putting 1.4bn smart people in the hands of one party, led by one person, would not be the best option.

Bar chart showing the world's leading American and American universities showing QS World University Rankings - 20 top marks

The largest asset in the US is the most attractive and brightest attraction in the world. Two Indian-born men now run Microsoft and Brands. One of Google’s founders was from the Soviet Union. Their current culture is contradictory. But diversity, with the help of institutions and principles of cooperation, can be a major force in the US in business, culture and politics.

The US cannot remain a world power, because China’s population is four times as large. However, as long as the US is still a democracy, free and open, it has the potential to become the most powerful citizen in the world in the future. If it chooses instead to be what its respondents want, it will be over. But that would be their choice, not their future.

martin.wolf@ft.com


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