The rush back to the US over the Covid-19 crisis has left regulators, investors and financiers busy interpreting whether the decline in labor and rising prices is causing a short-term warming in the summer or a long period of recession.
Some of the largest companies in the country have praised the power of repatriation on recent announcements as they have refused to predict whether the immediate vaccination and the growing economic interest will cause problems in America.
“The second phase may be more uncertain than the rest of the year,” Dalm McMillon, chief of Walmart, warned this week, as he and his contemporaries realized the power of consumer spending and hoped that the amount of savings would continue to rise.
3M, the manufacturer, was one of the companies that showed a “significant decline” in commodity prices, goods and other manufactures last week, although it is said to have raised customer prices in response.
Some recent economies have raised red flags, such as jumps consumer prices, although it was driven by things that could be transient. This includes rising commodity prices as Americans resume travel, and the high demand for used cars has been fueled by a lack of chip that has led to the development of new cars.
Unexpectedly job failure last month they also hid the disturbed image, and were driven by a decline in employment on temporary jobs, transportation and warehouses, and manufacturing.
“The plague. . . passed through the market and selected other factories and tore them down like a hurricane [but] they have jumped on the bandwagon of other industries and left them without success, “said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief financial officer.
This difference was reflected in the corporate profits. Rising timber prices have hurt homeowners and DIY retailers, while clothing brands like TJX have warned that a shortage of carriers could make carrier prices “stick to” throughout the year.
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Gershon Distenfeld, head of fixed finance at AllianceBernstein, said: “It’s very clear there will be high prices in spring and summer this year. The question is not whether prices will go up soon – yes. It seems like this will continue.”
While there is ample evidence of a lack of staff, companies including Disney and Home Depot have shown confidence in being able to work to achieve revival in consumer demand and provide more value to customers.
The labor market is all about employers, however, because a number of factors make it difficult to find workers, including increased unemployment benefits, reduced child care, and the fact that some workers still have job worries as the virus spreads.
One licensed dealer at McDonald’s in Florida made headlines last month offering $ 50 for each job interview, and the parent company has announced plans to increase wages by an average of 10% in 650 direct U.S. restaurants. Under Armor, a clothing group, Wednesday announced a dramatic increase in its hourly wage bill.
Rising prices and “just a shortage of workers to fill the crop” were “difficult to resolve” this summer, “Robert Vitale, head of the Post Holdings volcanoes, warned earlier this month. But he said he hoped more people would return to work as jobs went on in September.
Researchers and policymakers have divided the length of time for investors to expect the cost and labor costs to be exacerbated by the sudden impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and the response from policymakers.
“We did not close for long [and] we have not had the financial support of temporary economic growth. The opening will be. . . bumpy, “said Louise Sheiner, executive director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, a business group.
“There are many demands in some places, but. . . you do not know how [long] it will continue, ”he said.
Ellen Zentner, US chief economist at Morgan Stanley, acknowledged that short-term inflation was predictable, but warned that inflation was “moving faster than expected”.
“I see a lot of risks here: the risk of inflation, the risk of not getting enough jobs as fast as we want, and the risk that some of these impending conflicts will continue to be long and frustrating.”
Morgan Stanley still expects 8% growth in the U.S. economy this year, but if the depressive activities continue in the summer “this could lead to more stress”, Zentner said.
The recent market, however, shows that investors are not too afraid that today’s buying prices are announcing long-term swelling.
Debt sales to the US government have slowed down at the end of the bad weather. After offering almost 1.8% in March, the 10-year strike is now trading below 1.7%. Rising prices hurt these hookers because they deprive them of interest rates.
Temporary price measurements remain higher than their temporary counterparts, indicating that investors are taking the Federal Reserve’s view that temporary inflation is “temporary”.
Richardson of the ADP said most of the current difficulties were due to temporary setbacks, and he hoped September would be a “changing place” for children when they returned to school and their parents returned to work.
But another problem for those trying to read the US economic data is that the epidemic has brought about rapid change, saying: “No history in history can compare with this, even if it did exist, the economy would have moved the other way.”