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When the Western powers try to thwart a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nord Stream 2, a long-running project that has been pushing the border between Germany and the United States, could be a significant factor.
The $ 11bn gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea, a Russian-funded giant Gazprom, runs from western Siberia to Germany, twice the number of existing Nord Stream 1 pipelines.
Although Germany has maintained that it is a commercial enterprise, Nord Stream 2 also has geostrategic implications, passing through Ukraine and limiting about $ 2bn in travel tariffs that Russia pays to export gas to its territory.
Pipes have burned 26 million German homes at low cost and construction work was completed in September.
However, German authorities have not yet given final legal approval to Gazprom.
The US has seen the pipeline as a geopolitical tool for Russia to undermine national security and security, and to increase Moscow’s power in Europe, where gas prices have risen sharply.
The pipeline has been criticized by Ukraine and Poland and has left Washington in trouble with other European allies. It has also provoked political tensions in the new German Union government and left Western nations divided over the status quo.
Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who initially refused to comment publicly on the possibility of a pipeline collapse if Russia wanted to invade Ukraine, made a strong statement that this was still possible.
“It is clear that there will be a high cost and that all this must be addressed if there is a war against Ukraine,” Scholz told a news conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
On January 13, the U.S. Senate failed to approve a decision by Republican Senator Ted Cruz to overturn sanctions on Nord Stream 2.
The administration of US President Joe Biden persuaded Republican senators not to agree to the deal, fearing it could affect US-German relations and possibly jeopardize Russia in the Ukraine crisis.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked the Senate to approve the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, while Germany specifically requested that the US Congress not impose sanctions.
In May, Biden lifted sanctions on a Russian Swiss company running a pipeline project, Nord Stream 2 AG, as part of a deal with Germany.
However, just as the US did not influence Germany’s demands, and Russia’s toll intensified, with Tass said that sanctions could lead to power shortages and rising gas prices in Europe.
“When the US talks about sanctions or protests against the practice, it becomes even more popular in Germany,” said Stefan Meister, a Russian and Eastern European specialist with the German Council on Foreign Relations.
“Most Germans support the project, and are part of the elite and the media who oppose the pipeline.”
The decline in gas in Europe has been particularly significant due to the shortage of natural gas from Russia. It has had a profound effect on low-income workers in Germany, whose votes are based on Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD).
Thousands of Russian troops have been deployed near the Ukrainian border, sparking fears that Moscow might soon pose a threat.
US and UK have it began to come out some of the staff at their embassy in Kyiv, while the European Union has refused to follow suit, the ambassador said he did not want to “check” the situation.
The US has promised to strengthen security in Ukraine, but recent talks between the West and Russia have failed, some of Moscow’s demands have been rejected as baseless.
It also includes the fact that Ukraine should not join NATO and that NATO’s military activities should be limited to member states, including Poland.
However, talks followed last week in Geneva between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. he seemed calm strife, even temporarily.
The situation seems unlikely to be resolved quickly – few want the controversy, but there is a possibility that one could be accidentally triggered by political upheaval.
Russia has agreed to boost talks between Lavrov and his UK counterpart Ben Wallace.
Ukraine, a former Soviet Union that shares borders with the EU and Russia, has ties to Russian culture, and Russian is widely spoken. Despite gaining independence in 1991, Russia still considers Ukraine to be a very important sector and has long been opposed to European institutions.
Two months after the Nord Stream 2 certification process was suspended, it became one of the West’s remaining tools to influence Russia’s military decisions in Ukraine.
For Russia, the pipeline is important because it eliminates the risks associated with sending gas through transit countries, allowing Gazprom to send gas directly to its most important customers in Europe, Germany,
Pipes can reduce their operating costs by about $ 1bn a year, because the route through Ukraine, in particular, is more expensive.
“Germany has always refused to be pressured by the US because it needs reliable gas from Russia and, because of all the fact that it is now one of the world’s largest suppliers of natural gas, the US cannot replace Russia as a major part of natural gas.” said Ronald Smith, chief oil and gas expert at BCS Global Markets.
“Ukraine loses several billion dollars a year – making NS2 the cheapest way to ship – the largest source of revenue for the country.”
Passing through Ukraine greatly reduced the country’s power and Russia and reduced its costs. However, Europe and Germany rely on Russian air, with the same tensions emerging as insecurity, meaning that Nord Stream 2 has been a threat to the war in Ukraine and a sanction mechanism if any.
[Al Jazeera]
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