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His term as president of the European Council expires in 2019, Donald Tusk may have retired briefly. Instead, the former Prime Minister of Poland returns to his homeland to promise a final battle against his archenemy, Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
Saturday, Tusk he began to improve again of the Civic Platform, a right-wing party that he founded twenty years ago. On the same day, Kaczynski was re-elected leader of the Law and Justice Party, which has been in control of Polish politics since Tusk switched Warsaw in Brussels in 2014.
Resetting the 10-year-old dispute between pro-European Tusk and Eurosceptic Kaczynski is set to play a key role in the next parliamentary elections, by 2023. The result should establish a long-standing relationship with Poland and the EU, which Law and Justice has repeatedly argued. Change of courts in Poland that Brussels is seen as a major threat to the rule of law.
“The competition has begun”, the front page of Rzeczpospolita, one of Poland’s largest newspapers, announced on Monday. “This is a difficult week that started with a long and very tiring campaign since 1989.”
Since Tusk left Polish politics, Law and Justice have been pushing for parliamentary, presidential and European elections. Soon Parliamentary vote in 2019, it found good results of any party in Poland since the fall of communism.
However, Tusk’s return comes at a time when the alliance of the three legal systems with Law seems fragile. Last year, research shows that its support has dropped by about 10 percent about 33 percent, triggers for disputes such as strengthening of Poland’s strict strict laws and the massive erosion of aid for its current residents.
Re-inserted conflict. Last month, three Law and Justice MPs set out to form their own party, which took away most of its legislative mandate. Since then it has managed to retaliate against many. But the release of its legislative power has led to discussions in the early elections, either this year or next year.
In the face of this, the return of Tusk has sent power through the already disbanded Civic Platform. “I think [Tusk] heard that Law and Justice were being beaten but what was missing was what led to the opposition side being able to do this. And I think he has a chance to play such a great machine, “said Radoslaw Sikorski, a former MEP foreign minister for Tusk.
“The ruling party is now back and we are coming back to this House.”
But despite the challenges of Law and Justice, Tusk faces a major challenge to revive the Civic Platform, which under the leadership of its leader defeated Law and Justice in the 2007 and 2011 elections. In recent months, opinion polls have provided support for about 16%, less than half the rate. who was involved in the 2019 election.
One of the reasons is the arrival of Poland in 2050, the first party hosted by TV presenter Szymon Holownia, who has been second in the polls recently. But the Civic Platform also suffered from a hunger for leadership and failed to formulate arguments against the popularity of the generous support programs which has promoted the success of the Law and Justice.
Since returning on Saturday, the Tusks have begun to protest the declining years of Law and Justice. He criticized the party for being “a dictator of the dictatorship” because of the disruption of democracy and the scale, and also highlighted the international isolation caused by the wars in Warsaw and Brussels. But he did not say much about the facts, and observers say that violating the Law and Justice alone is not a viable option.
“[Tusk] is an opponent of Law and Justice, which is well supported by a strong group of Law and Justice candidates, which is why I think the Civic Platform will soon be formed, “said Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor of political science at the University of Sussex in the UK.
“The problem is, you don’t succeed with those people. You win by trying to outgrow voters who oppose Law and Justice. ”
Investigators say the first measurement of what Tusk did was probably to come this fall. In the meantime, he will have time to re-establish his party, with Law and Justice testing many as they try to keep track of their financial system. Performing in Poland.
“Tusk’s return is a change – although it is not clear where we are going. The Civic Platform has been in a lot of trouble,” said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw.
“Tusk’s return gives the party a chance to return. It will be promoted in the polls – the question is how long. If it does, then it will change the party. If that doesn’t happen, it will also be a turning point, because it will mean the end of the Civic Platform. ”
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