Trade in the history of the Baltic and Belarus differs greatly from sanctions
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Exports from Belarus to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are closer or closer, strengthening their trade ties even though the three Baltic states take sanctions against the government of President Alexander Lukashenko.
In the first 10 months of last year, Estonia’s imports from Belarus were even higher than in 2020. € 522 million and more than five times higher than the previous peak in 2018. Lithuanian exports have increased 50 percent compared to 2020, hitting € 1 billion – third highest than previous 2015 chief. Latvia has risen two-thirds from 2020 onwards € 407m, Only 2 percent below their 2011 peak.
The sharp rise has highlighted the tensions that Baltic countries face between economic opportunities and their political rhetoric, according to experts.
“The Baltic states are in the process of realizing that translating strong foreign policy into a viable option is not an easy task, even in the most obvious cases,” said Tomas Jermalavicius, head of education at Estonia’s International. Center for Defense and Security. “There are financial players – even government agencies – who will use their potential to find ways to get around them in the long run.”
The Baltic states have been living very loud voices to Nato for points against Belarus and Russia, as Minsk had used in recent months illegal immigrants attempts to force the neighboring states of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
But economic issues are causing tensions within the family. For example, the government of Lithuania almost collapsed last month it was revealed that he had continued trade with Belarus before US sanctions. Lithuanian foreign and transport officials submitted their resignation papers – which were rejected – after revealing that the country’s railways were state-owned. still carrying Belarusian potash.
Jermalavicius states that shippers in all three Baltic countries “will always seize opportunities to make extra money. . . if there is no compulsion by the authorities ”as many had close ties with Belarusian state-owned enterprises.
But Vidmantas Janulevicius, president of the Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists, said that while the Baltic states should heed sanctions, it would be “stupid” to ban all foreign goods, especially since the region is connected to China and Central Asia through Belarus.
“The most important thing is to stop Lukashenko’s government, not the people of Belarus. Like us [Lithuania] “It will not move the goods, it will just move to another country,” he said.
One problem is that US and EU sanctions on Belarus do not always communicate, and US sanctions do not sting the Baltics due to the lack of direct connection with the US economy, despite being a key political ally.
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Jermalavicius said this raised the “legitimate question” as to whether the Baltic states were ready to “accept economic opportunities in terms of their political and social security preferences”.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Estonia said that the Belarusian import was “travel goods” and was carefully monitored on the ban list. The Foreign Ministry in Lithuania has found that there is no legal basis for the EU to implement the sanctions imposed by a third country. And Latvia’s foreign ministry said: “Any trade that is taking place [with Belarus] at the moment it is happening under the ban. ”
From Belarus to the three Baltic states includes timber, fertilizers and oil.
Jermalavicius said it was “a painful lesson” for the Baltic states because “the frontiers of error in today’s world are very small”.
He added: “They should not waste their precious political resources and the reliability of Washington because of the several million euros their businesses can earn each year by relocating to Belarus.”
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