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This is a good way to approach the US economy


The author, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s chief of the world, is the author of ‘The Ten Commandments of Good Values’

Driven by the success of the vaccine in America and the great interest of the government, the US economy is expected to grow at a rapid rate of about 7% this year and is now leading the world. The narrator talks about the “American Renaissance” in the country where Sunday celebrated the 245th Independence Day.

But there is a problem: America has just gone through the recession. It is impossible for them to be born again.

Ten years ago, as a result of the 2008 financial crisis, Standard & Poor lowered US government debt for the first time, resulting in a small U.S. forecast. Instead, in 2010 he re-energized the American economy, driven by his technical expertise and rapid resolution of the debt crisis.

The U.S. share of global exports rose from 2011 down from 21% to 25% last year. Average income started at seventeen-five years in the US than in Europe at real dollars and ended more than 60 percent. The US-led currency in Japan grew significantly. By early 2020, even though it says “despair“In the middle class, US consumers and small businesses have become more and more dependent since 1960.

As a major economic power, the US reached an all-time high. Its share in global market markets rose in 2010 from 42 percent to 58 percent. The program of dollars became more visible than ever, helping the US advance to other developed countries.

By the end of 2019, 75% of all external debt to individuals and corporations had been financed, starting at 60% of the crisis before 2008. Six out of 10 countries used the dollar as their “anchor” – a measure of value and stability. of their money – close to a great record. China’s efforts The dollar’s opposition to the world’s most popular currency has failed in 2010.

After the last decade, America will not rise again in 2020s. Like me he objected at the beginning of the epidemic, powerful booms are often followed by long ridges.

The US economy led the world in the 1960s, but in the 70s it was worried that it would remain in the Soviet Union. In the 1980’s it was frustrated by Japan. The US reverted to the industrial revolution of the 1990s, but the 2000s were about the rise of emerging markets led by China.

Predictions of further US growth relied heavily on the belief that it could continue to advance technologically. But U.S. internet giants have already faced rivals in the coming markets from Asia to Africa, where international traders are building international and international market leaders for ecommerce, e-banking and hunting. Ethe brain closes the new gap in areas such as robots and AI, and European developers are attracting more private investment than ever before.

Booms are often killed out of self-esteem, which is hitting the US now. The key statement for both parties is that the United States will continue to borrow and use it freely, as opposed to the dollar as the most sought-after currency in the world.

But easy-to-get money out of the Fed threatens to weaken the dollar and force the rise of Zombies – companies that earn very little money in order to repay interest on their loans. He’s not been in the US 20 years ago, but he had 6 percent of companies listed by 2010, and about 20% by last year.

Governments and corporations are now heavily in debt, and it is difficult to imagine how they could sustain the economy. In 2010, the US paid the world $ 2.5tn, equivalent to 17% of US GDP. By the beginning of last year, theirs debt increased to $ 10tn and more than 50% of GDP – a level that often leads to economic hardship in the past. It is currently $ 14tn and 67% of GDP.

All of this does not mean that American scholars, who were wrong in the 2010s, will be shown to be right. China’s growing global economy has caused problems in Europe and Japan. Opponents, still believing that the US will soon be defeated by China, ignore that China has serious financial problems as well.

What is possible is that the US will have a decade-old, burdened by its own recent growth rate. Compared to other markets, US stocks are at its peak in 100 years. Big statistics that reflect this new hope: after a decade of success in the United States, many experts here expect the same. Unfortunately, this could only be good if it reaches America.

This article has been adapted to clarify the measure used in the findings in the US, Europe and Japan.


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