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Accepting negotiations with the military threat of rebellion another world will no doubt be seen as a reward for fear. But the US and NATO allies have nothing to do with Russia in a list of meetings this week to try to quell unrest in Ukraine, even if it is part of the Kremlin’s security. There may also be opportunities to compromise other security concerns in Moscow and avoid the threat of a major war. Whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to share the good news is another matter.
Last month, Russia published his wishes to rewrite the details of European security in the two pre-emptive agreements, with the US and NATO. Russian officials followed suit with serious threats. In both cases, there was more than one way to start a conversation. The document contains long-standing and one-sided interests that conflict with the basic principles of European security after the Cold War, including the right of any country to choose its own foreign policy. Western allies would not accept these demands and Moscow knows.
Putin is ready to halt another Nato expansion. He says that in its development, the alliance provided the guarantees that were issued at the end of the Cold War – not to mention that Russia ratified it when it established its relations with the organization in 1998.
But a clear denial of Nato membership in Ukraine, excluding Sweden or Finland, would violate the Nato-found agreement. Its members will not accept the change. Nor should he give a reward for Russia’s persecution. There is no desire to bring Ukraine right now, but it would be absurd to think that ending Kyiv’s Nato ambitions will completely end Russia’s disruption of Ukraine.
US and European officials have confirmed that the talks could not be interpreted by Russian red lines. They will fight against their own. Russia’s breach of integrity, denial of the right to choose its own future, repeated cruelty to Ukraine and disruption in the various forms of certain democratic western regions must be on the table. The challenge for ambassadors on both sides would be to identify areas of concern within this melee that could be the basis for further discussions and to facilitate dialogue.
Fortunately, there are others, though it means reinstating some of the treaties that Russia has broken or ignored in the past. Russia’s slow demand for him and the US to refrain from throwing small, medium-sized weapons outside their territories could be the basis for negotiations to replace the 1987 agreement on such weapons that fell in 2018 after violating Russian law. Russia and NATO will be able to explore new ways of using energy and exercise and adopt a more transparent and cohesive approach. Nato has banned production Members of the “second group” where you could not stop the troops. But it can also be considered deportation if Moscow makes peace with Kyiv and agrees to limit its military or military base to Belarus or Kaliningrad.
Progress will be in favor of both sides and Russia will not show any signs of carrying a gun to the head of Ukraine. Russia’s decline along Ukraine’s borders is crucial to any major negotiations. Putin can have any intention of leaving and use the failure of negotiations as an excuse to attack. The West should expect the best from their negotiations in order to prepare for the worst by emphasizing its readiness to impose strict sanctions and to strengthen Kyiv’s security.
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