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The US is struggling to measure job growth as the epidemic disrupts labor market data

The U.S. government significantly reduced the number of jobs created this year as it struggled to analyze the effects of the epidemic, which posed a challenge for policymakers moving forward with the financial crisis.

In 2021, the federal government that publishes monthly job statistics in the US has reversed its original estimate of 976,000 pay and jobs, the largest change in a single year.

Reviewing previous statistics of new statistics is a common occurrence: the first comparison that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates is doubled, with the second comparison published in the next month’s work report and the third comparison published last month. .

However, it is during this time of great economic transformation that these figures are not difficult to measure, and they are carefully monitored. This means that data editing, which is printed without copying, suddenly has the potential to change the perception of the labor market and how the data should be properly processed.

“The economic downturn has changed dramatically. Not in my life but in the lives of many people living today. We have seen a recession that has been as rapid as it has been since the spring of 2020,” said David Wilcox, who led the research and statistics at the Federal Reserve. “The economic crisis in the affected areas is enormous.”

The epidemic has been particularly reassuring for economists looking at the US market, as it has not only produced information on the masses, but also distorted the seasonal music that is often imagined. The dramatic increase in the number of payments during the recession has also led to difficulties.

“You are already doing a difficult job and making it Herculean,” said Ernie Tedeschi, Biden’s chief financial adviser as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers.

This problem was also reflected in a recent performance report printed on December 3, which just featured 210,000 new sites created in November. The unemployment rate dropped significantly to 4.2 percent, far from the 15 percent that reached last year.

These figures have baffled financial analysts, largely because of the stark contrast between the two surveys that make the monthly report. A “business establishment” survey, in which the subject matter of the job was changed, showed a significant decrease in employment. A “door-to-door” population survey, used to calculate the number of jobs, found a profit of 1.1m.

To improve the picture, the BLS completely changed its September and October figures, bringing the number of jobs in September to 379,000 and in October to 546,000. Taken together, approximately 6m jobs were created in 2021.

“Everything has become bigger than ever,” said Stephen Crestol, an economist who has spent more than 30 years at BLS. “The dramatic decline and the dramatic increase, we are not accustomed to this.”

The task of calculating the amount of pay during a pandemic is complicated by two major factors. First, a number of businesses are turning to their responses too late.

The commission has had a difficult time getting businesses to participate in research into the cause of the epidemic, Crestol said. Participation, which is voluntary in all but three states, has taken place half since last February.

Bullet bar chart showing the highest turnaround performance for the first job in 2021

Although businesses have agreed to complete the survey, their responses may follow after the deadline for initial estimates in the performance report, which is released on the first Friday of the month.

In a November report, 65.3 percent of businesses he replied over time, the lowest number of November reports in more than a decade.

To make the first estimate, BLS calculates the expected payout number for businesses that have not yet responded. Delayed responses are included in the following reviews.

“In a normal month, you don’t change much,” said Erica Groshen of Cornell University, a former BLS Commissioner. But in a year like 2021, marked by rapid economic growth, delays in responding businesses may be able to enroll more quickly, he said, leading to a major overhaul.

Climate change has also made job growth a challenge.

Economists pay close attention to “climate change” statistics, as they are thought to provide a more precise view of current events once the fluctuations in data related to events such as the beginning of the school year are removed.

Retail businesses in November, for example, also reported that 331,600 more people are paying compared to October. But BLS modified the number is down, because recruiting people into a business group tends to take time off before the holidays. The commission said the sector had “lost” 20,400 jobs due to climate change.

Overall, unimaginable figures show a pay rise of 778,000 in November, which the BLS adjusted to down 568,000, a re-examination.

“Climate change is not just another kind of rule, it’s just a system,” said Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan and a member of the CEA during the Obama administration. “Covid has done more to disrupt our operations than I think.”

Weather conditions are based on the last 10 years of data, with a significant increase in recent years. By 2020, most movements were so-called outliers and is not included in the modifications.

The model is updated every time new data arrives, which results in a number of changes. “You get a lot of it, then it affects your understanding of the past,” said Nick Bunker of the worksheet Indeed.

How new mutations for coronavirus occur will determine whether the recent waves have changed or worsened from now on.

The result is a major one for the US central bank, which oversees the operation green light to tighten the monetary policy next year. Christopher Waller, the governor-general, said the Fed had already added its own types of data and speed data and more, including an ADP working week report.

“What we are seeing progress is just starting to decline, then the calculation methods are going well,” Groshen said. “The more driven by new reforms and the different responses to its principles…, The more likely it is that the models will fail because they are based on the old ones.”

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