The population of the UK will start to decline by 2025
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Population figures in the UK will begin to decline within a decade, leaving the country relying on migration to increase the workforce, according to new data.
The decline in birth and aging rates means more people will die than those born each year by 2025, indicating a long-term change in history, the figures released Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics.
These figures show that the UK population is also aging faster than expected, leading to concerns over rising cost of aged care, pensions and health care for the state.
Previous figures, based on 2018 data, predicted that death would not exceed births by 2043. But in 2025-26, 4,000 people will die more than those born in the UK, according to the ONS.
“This reflects the magnitude of the challenges we face in meeting the needs of the people, and preserving the size of the country we are used to in the past,” said Ben Zaranko, an economist at the Institute for Fiscal. Education.
Although population growth will increase by 3.2 percent over the next decade, this will be the result of 2.2m people migrating to the UK, according to the ONS.
According to estimates, which includes birth, death and migration, the number of people considering migration will begin to decline from 2058.
Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, said the influx of immigrants would increase the number of workers and could boost government spending in the short term.
“It seems that relocation will help the UK to reduce population growth – which is very difficult for governments to control,” he said.
But Sumption added that over time, complete migration was not the “best way” to deal with old age. “It actually reduces the aging process rather than eliminating it.”
By 2045, the ONS estimates that the population aged 85 and over will be about 3.1m – 4.3 percent of the population.
One of the questions the government is facing regarding the change is to provide additional government funding for the elderly to raise taxes, or other means such as levies on rent, capital or pension.
Alistair McQueen, head of savings and retirement in Aviva, said: “The government needs to raise more money for health care, social care and pensions,” adding: “People will face a greater responsibility for their long, future life. “
While life expectancy is expected to rise, the ONS revised its figures compared to 2018. It now expects men and women in 2045 to be 0.6 years old and 0.4 years younger, respectively, than previously expected.
Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London, said it was “absurd” that the decline in life expectancy was due to a decade of hardship.
Over the next 10 years, the number of births in the UK could decline, the ONS said. It predicted that the total population for 2045 would be 71m, 1.8m less than previous figures.
Portes pointed out that declining fertility rates could be linked to a lack of child care, unemployment and insecure households that prevent teens from having children.
“If your economic and social policies are not the same as young people being able to have as many children as they would like, you are wrong,” he said.
“We need to create a community where young people with low incomes and middle income feel they are being helped to have children.”
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