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Ambassadors from the US and Russia have traveled through Europe to discuss security in Ukraine but military experts are looking at a dangerous move: the re-deployment of Moscow weapons and personnel around its borders by a southern neighbor.
Russia has stepped up its military presence on the border with Ukraine as it holds talks for several weeks, and has sent a number of items that Western officials and experts say can show up. preparing for a new invasion.
After talks with the Moscow president, he said talks last week with the US and NATO took place hit “dead end,” Russia moved additional units along the Ukrainian border from the east of the country and re-strengthened existing operations on the Kyiv region.
In all, Russia has sent more than 106,000 troops to areas near the border, according to Western and Ukrainian officials. These groups include between 55 and 60 troops, mostly mobile and independent.
Russia’s military strategy has shown “it can provoke conflict within a few weeks rather than months,” says Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at the CNA, Washington think tank. “He sent several teams [ . . . ] before the meeting. So apparently he was not betting too much on the success of the embassy. . . the risk of war has increased dramatically in the last week. ”
Russian officials have denied any wrongdoing in Ukraine, saying so threatened an anonymous “technical response” if their demands for Nato to halt its expansion into the east – which could re-enact a European security system after the Cold War – were not met.
Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow Defense think-tank Cast, said Russian President Vladimir Putin had turned to violence after losing other routes in Ukraine. This includes the end of the Normandy-held talks between France and Germany last summer, as well as Kyiv’s actions against Russia’s top adviser and three nearby TV stations last winter.
“What weapons do Russia and Putin have in addition to coercive negotiations and direct intervention?” Pukhov said.
White House continues to rise a diplomatic attempt to thwart Russia from the Ukrainian invasion of the threat of sanctions in response to any atrocities and to the ongoing dialogue with Moscow on its security concerns.
But the US is Nato officials he says he sees it as a requirement that Russia wants the agreement not to ratify Ukraine, which it leads. President Joe Biden admitted Wednesday that he expects Putin to “relocate” to Ukraine.
Officials and experts say Moscow is already ready.
In addition to the Armed Forces, tanks and other weapons, since late December Russia has begun moving weapons, field hospitals and providing security to areas near the border. According to Western Intelligence officials, the groups are showing that an attack is underway.
“They have enough limits depending on their size and type and the ability to do a number of things. These can be as small as threats of soldiers, attacks, beatings [or] to the point of physical activity, ”stated one Western attorney general.
“But if they really want a complete invasion with the intention of taking over and retaining the territory, then the alliance is that they need more troops than are sent here.”
In particular, the official added, “The signs are that the Ukrainian people will not be able to move, even if they are hit by a hurricane and shelling. That they will try to fall to the ground and then when it is over, stop and fight anyone who enters.”
In recent weeks, Russia has sent 36 Iskander weapons near the border, which could hit Kyiv.
Moscow has also relocated tanks south of the Black Sea, while its close proximity presence means that more warplanes and combat helicopters can reach Ukraine without evacuation.
“The size of the potential that he is bringing is affecting you,” said a Western law official.
In the meantime, Russia has sent various troops to participate in military exercises in Belarus, on the Ukraine border. The units include Russian S-400 weapons and the Pantsir air missile system, which Western officials say could be used to prevent Ukrainian allies from detecting or assisting in an attack.
A total landmass could result in Russia seizing a third of Ukraine’s territory by sending troops to the eastern border, Belarus, Crimea and the Black Sea, Kofman said.
“The big question is, will they look to change governments and then end it? Or do they want to divide Ukraine?” he said.
Instead of a complete offensive, Russia could choose to disrupt Ukraine with military terrorists, mixed systems and cyber attacks, such as last week which shut down about 70 Ukrainian government websites and identified them as Russia.
It can also achieve its many military objectives by using aircraft-destroying eagles, Pukhov said.
“Even from the Russian territory, it would be easy to break up the Ukrainian army, especially if you do not do a lot of ground work – you use the latest weapons and equipment, which we make. [the Russians] and Ukraine does not. “
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