Qatar has stepped up its role in mediating between the US and Iran as western powers have been striving to convince wary Iranian leaders to ink a deal to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, according to people briefed on the talks.
After 11 months of EU-brokered indirect talks in Vienna, officials say time is running out. The Gulf state has been acting as an intermediary at the request of both Washington and Tehran, complementing the talks in the Austrian capital, in an effort to build trust between the longtime foes.
Doha has ferried messages between the protagonists and sought to allay Iranian concerns, including those related to its demand that the Biden administration provide a guarantee that no future US government is able to unilaterally abandon the deal, as former president Donald Trump did in 2018.
Qatari officials have also been working to facilitate direct talks between Washington and Tehran, should a deal be reached, to ensure that any outstanding issues, such as prisoner exchanges and additional sanctions relief, could be addressed in the future, a diplomat briefed on the talks said.
“Both sides really need a deal, and there’s a willingness on both sides, but the biggest problem is trust,” the diplomat said. “They each think the other side doesn’t want it, which is not legitimate.”
A senior US official said Qatar had been “extremely, extremely helpful in supporting efforts to resume full implementation of the JCPOA [the nuclear accord]”.
An Iranian official declined to discuss Qatar’s specific role, but said it “and one or two other countries have brought messages [from the US] in some cases ”.
Western officials are pressuring Iran to agree to a deal within days, arguing that if it does not the moribund accord would be redundant because of the advances Tehran has made to its nuclear program. They said they are close to an agreement, but caution that some outstanding issues still need to be resolved.
Moscow’s demand at the weekend that it needs guarantees that US sanctions imposed on Russia after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine will not impede its trade with Iran has threatened to complicate matters and added to the sense of urgency. Russia is a signatory to the accord with France, Germany, the UK and China, and involved in the main talks in Vienna.
The diplomat said that both the US and Iran want to continue negotiations “if they reach an agreement”.
“The biggest mistake with the 2015 deal was the talks stopped after it was signed,” said the diplomat. “Initially, neither side trusted one another, and needed signs of good faith, but now there are positive movements. The Iranians now see Biden as someone they can negotiate with. ”
Gas-rich Qatar, home to the biggest US military base in the region, has previously facilitated talks between the US and its adversaries, including the Taliban. The role of Qatar stepped up after its emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, was hosted by US president Joe Biden at the White House in January. Biden used the visit to designate Qatar a “major non-Nato ally”.
Doha’s ties to Tehran strengthened after the Islamic republic boosted trade with the Gulf state as it endured a four-year regional embargo led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, before it was lifted a year ago.
After Sheikh Tamim’s trip to Washington, his foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, made an unannounced visit to Tehran last month – his second trip to Iran this year. Sheikh Mohammed also had a phone call with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, last week about the outstanding issues at Washington’s request.
Days earlier, Sheikh Tamim held talks with president Ebrahim Raisi in Doha, the first visit by an Iranian president to Qatar in a decade.
Ali Vaez, an Iranian expert at Crisis Group, said the issue with the intermediaries at the Vienna talks was that there was no one both sides fully trusted to “share things they were not comfortable with”. He added that Rob Malley, the US’s top negotiator, has for a long time had a “very good relationship” with Sheikh Mohammed, Qatar’s foreign minister.
“Qatar’s relationship with Iran changed post the regional embargo and so all the stars aligned for the Qataris to step in,” Vaez said. “There was no one else who had the personal ties to both sides and was better placed geostrategically at this point in time to play the role.”
Iranian officials have said outstanding issues include Tehran’s demands for guarantees from the US, as well as disagreements over which sanctions would be lifted if Iran reverses its nuclear activity to agreed limits. Tehran wants all Trump-era sanctions lifted, including those related to alleged human rights abuses and terrorism allegations, not just those related to economic activity.
The diplomat briefed on the Qatari talks said Tehran initially wanted its differences with the US lumped together within an agreement to revive the nuclear accord. But the message from Europeans, Qataris and other mediators was “that is going to be very difficult, agree on the JCPOA, which both sides need urgently, and either keep other topics in separate talks or continue talks on other issues, like other sanctions, after the deal is signed, ”the diplomat said.
Experts said it is almost impossible for Biden to guarantee that no future administration would withdraw from the accord. “The worry with no guarantee is that the Iranians will go into it with one eye open and be prepared that in two years the US could leave again,” the diplomat said. “The Iranians could use these two years to develop trust and relations with the EU and Asia, and build further institutional trust and other negotiations with the US.”
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