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Boris Johnson’s proposal to eradicate Omicron’s Covid-19 disease with limited restrictions could be a viable option for the UK economy, according to academic experts linked to epidemics and economics.
They will criticize policy-making ministers based on political rather than political agendas. But he believes Omicron could bring economic hardship in December and January.
Tony Yates, an independent economist and banker at the Bank of England, said that, fortunately beyond the verdict, Omicron’s waves seem to be disappearing without the need for tougher sanctions than ever before – especially working from home if possible.
“Looking at the situation, it looks like we could just run away without the NHS burden, but it would be a big shave if we did,” he said.
With Omicron’s health impact proving to be less dangerous than it is for people with high levels of vaccines, many economists now believe they can look back on what has recently changed as just a shock to the UK economy by spring.
Samuel Tombs, a UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “In the second phase, all household income should be as close as possible if the change had not occurred.”
Economists have no doubt that when the official figures for December and January are published, they will show the amount of things that consumers get before Christmas and the new year, spending less money on shops, pubs and restaurants.
The facts from the Bank of England show a significant reduction in hospitality spending before Christmas and the decline was much lower compared to the same period in 2019-20 before the epidemic.
But with so many people still working, buying and eating food at home, they think the consequences will be minimal, as the economic downturn in the Delta wave was small in the summer of last year.
Commercial sales in the UK rose 2.1 percent in December compared to the same month last year, according to estimates by KPMG consultants and the British Retail Consortium, a corporate body, published Tuesday.
Consumer spending, which includes non-in-store revenue such as restaurants and cinemas, rose 14 percent compared to December 2019, according to a Barclaycard survey, which tracks about half of all credit card transactions in the country.
Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said: “It should come as no surprise that jobs in December and January are lower than ever before,” noting England’s restrictions on working at home with the cabinet are encouraging. being careful can affect work. “We are just waiting for this [effect] be humble, ”he added.
Many economists are now preparing for a decline in household items in December and January following what is expected to be a larger month when November figures are published on Friday.
“The collapse of the job market since Covid resumption means GDP fell in December and will suffer from early growth by 2022, creating weak starting bases this year,” said Andrew Goodwin, UK’s chief financial officer at Oxford. Economics.
But immersion should be short, he added, because Omicron passes through the crowd quickly with minimal restrictions. “In the past, viral waves have shown that they can be resilient,” Goodwin said.
The biggest hurdle to growth this year, economists said, is a rise in the cost of living, which could affect real money, especially after April.
James Smith, a marketing economist at ING, said that, due to wage pressure in the UK rather than in the US, “the economic downturn… Will reduce consumer spending in coming regions.”
While economists hope that Omicron’s waves will pass without major economic damage, the future of the virus will be whether the government should take action to prevent sanctions and the future support of businesses and families.
Yates said with vaccines already in place to prevent serious illnesses, there will be no major health or economic problems. inhibitors that delay disease. While the world’s potential for anti-coronavirus will be much better than it currently is, “future goals are not very strong. [as it was]”, He said.
Flavio Toxvaerd, an economist at Cambridge University who has been researching long-term strategies for preventing infectious diseases, stressed that the government does not clearly state its position. “The Prime Minister recently spoke critically about finding a link between economics, culture and health but did not provide any evidence to support or analyze the facts, other than to say that the limits are correct,” he said.
He also said the economic benefits of a few restrictions, while seemingly paying off now, are “full of risks” and economic benefits could be short-lived if the number of diseases rises to the extent that the NHS cannot cope.
“Instead of successfully managing the epidemic, the government has said [always] selected to release the waves and apply emergency brakes at the last moment if necessary. This could be more costly than speeding up the spread of the disease here, “said Toxvaerd.
His warning is echoed by many economists, who have insisted that this year’s forecasts on the UK economy continue to depend on the prevalence of the epidemic and the risks of future species of coronavirus.
Many expect the recovery from the first pandemic to continue, with the pre-GDP epidemic surpassing the first half of this year. But despite the sheer volume of growth, the UK economy will not be able to recover from the epidemic this year.
Additional reports of Valentina Romei
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