Oyang’anira katundu ndi kuwonongeka kwa ‘spec-tech’

‘Spec-tech ikuwonongeka’

Chaka chabwino chatsopano. Sitinakhalepo ndi nthawi yoti tiwononge zomwe tasankha pa chaka chatsopano ndipo misika yayamba kale zovuta.

Sabata yatha osunga ndalama adasiya malonda zomwe zabweretsa phindu lalikulu kuyambira pamavuto azachuma: kusiya magawo amakampani omwe akukula mwachangu (ndipo nthawi zambiri osapindulitsa) ndikugula mabizinesi osakhazikika omwe akuyembekezeka kupindula ndi kuyambiranso kwachuma.

Sizitengera misika savant kudziwa kuti kuchotsedwa kwa thandizo la banki yapakati ndikukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja cha US chaka chino vuto la zinthu zoopsa pompopompo apamwamba ndi largesse chuma cha Fed, analemba misika mkonzi Katie Martin.

Makamaka, ziyembekezo za kumangitsa uku adachita nkhonya yokha ku ng’ombe zongopeka zaukadaulo monga Cathie Wood‘s Ark Invest, omwe thumba lawo logulitsira malonda likutsika pafupifupi 10 peresenti chaka chino. Monga Hani Redha, woyang’anira mbiri ku Malingaliro a kampani PineBridge Investments, inati: “Spec-tech ikuwonongeka.”

Ndipo monga oyang’anira thumba ogwira ntchito amadziyika okha kudziko lomwe chiwongola dzanja sichili pansi, zovuta zomwe zakhalapo kwa nthawi yayitali (kuganiza zolipirira, kungokhala ndi magwiridwe antchito) zomwe zimawatsutsa. cholinga pitilizani. Onetsani A: magawo atatu mwa magawo atatu a otola masheya idatsika msika waku US chaka chatha.

Kuchulukirachulukira kwamisika yotentha kudakweza pafupifupi mamanenjala onse omwe adalembedwa mu 2021 koma kubalalitsidwa pakati pawo. opambana ndi otayika ikuyembekezeka kukwera mu 2022, pomwe osunga ndalama amakondera magulu omwe akukumana ndi madera omwe akukula mwachangu monga katundu wamba, malinga ndi akatswiri.

Tom Mills, katswiri pa Jeffries, akuti:

“Nthawi zambiri misika yazachuma komanso kupulumutsa mtengo wokhudzana ndi mliri wadzetsa njira zopezera ndalama zomwe oyang’anira katundu amapeza. [since the] Kuwongolera kwakanthawi kochepa, kokulirapo kwa msika mu Marichi 2020. Kutsika kwamtsogolo komanso kutha kwa nthawi yayitali kungakhale kowononga kwambiri magwiridwe antchito chifukwa mamanejala ambiri akuika ndalama kuti achuluke.”

Pakadali pano pali anthu ochepa omwe satha kujambula kufanana pakati pawo Steven Spielberg‘s original Jurassic Park ndi makampani a ETF. Koma mnzanga Robin Wigglesworth ndi mmodzi wa iwo. Amayang’ana kupyola mitu yayikulu yamakampani a ETF (pafupifupi $10tn pambuyo pa chaka chachiwiri cha rekodi kukula) paziwopsezo zoyambira. Kuchulukirachulukira kwa “ma ETF ovuta, okwera mtengo, opangidwa kuchokera ku ma ETF omwe ndi otsika mtengo kwambiri omwe amagulitsidwa kwa ogulitsa ogulitsa kapena ogulitsa masana kufunafuna zosangalatsa”.

Ndipo ngati chiopsezo chili m’maganizo mwanu, musaphonye John Plender pa angapo kuopsa kwa ndalama a 2022. Kupita mtsogolo ndi mmwamba.

Hertz: Moyo wa lendi

Yakhala nthawi yovuta kukhala woyang’anira ngongole wokhumudwa. Pakhala pali mwayi wochepa wopezera ndalama pamsika wazaka khumi kuphatikiza ng’ombe momwe kulowererapo kwa banki yayikulu kwathandizira misika yapadziko lonse lapansi.

Chifukwa chake mliri utafika kumapeto kwa 2020 ndipo kuyenda kwapadziko lonse lapansi kudayima, Kuwongolera Kulimbana ndi Knighthead Capital Management adapeza mwayi ndikukweza $ 1.5bn kuti agwire ntchito yovutitsidwa ndi maulendo.

Iwo sanadikire nthawi yaitali kuti agwiritse ntchito ndalamazo. Mu Meyi 2020, Hertz yaperekedwa chifukwa cha bankirapuse. Mabizinesi awiriwa adayamba ntchito yogulitsa malonda a marathon kuti achotse kampaniyo pamutu 11, ndipo anatulukira wopambana, adapanga ndalama zokwana $2bn mumpainiya wobwereketsa magalimoto.

“Nthawi zonse pamakhala gawo limodzi lomwe limakhala pachimake pamavuto aliwonse,” akutero Tom Wagner, omwe adakhazikitsa Knighthead mu 2008 kuti agwiritse ntchito chuma chovutitsidwa. “Panthawiyi, kunali kuyenda komanso zosangalatsa. Ngati titha kuchita bwino, titha kukonza zonse bwino. ”

Tsopano ndalama ziwiri zochokera ku New York zikukhala pamapepala opeza pafupifupi $ 3bn kuchokera ku malonda. Mliriwu ukupitilirabe koma chuma chamakampani obwereketsa magalimoto chabwerera. Kuperewera kwa semiconductor padziko lonse lapansi kwachepetsa kupanga magalimoto atsopano, motero ndi kuthekera kochepa kokulitsa zombo zawo, monga Hertz ndi Chidziwitso cha Bajeti akweza mitengo kuti igwirizane ndi kukwera mtengo kwa zinthu. Pakadali pano, zovuta zogulitsira zida zapangitsa kuti mitengo yamagalimoto ogwiritsidwa ntchito ichuluke, kuthandiza makampani obwereketsa magalimoto chifukwa amakhala ndi zombo zazikulu zomwe amagulitsa kwa ogulitsa magalimoto akamakalamba.

Mu kusanthula uku, mnzanga Antoine Gara ndipo ndimakweza chivindikiro pa imodzi mwa malonda opindulitsa kwambiri a hedge fund mu 2021. Timamvanso za tsogolo losiyana kwambiri lomwe Certares ndi Knighthead amalingalira za Hertz, momwe zombo zake ndi maukonde a malo zimayikidwanso ngati zomangamanga, kukula kwamakampani amagalimoto amagetsi komanso nthawi yomwe ikubwera yama taxi odziyimira pawokha.

Mpikisano ndi zachuma: oyang’anira katundu amalephera kuyenda

Shundrawn Thomas, wakuda waku America wochokera kumwera kwa Chicago, tsopano akutumikira monga pulezidenti wa Northern Trust Asset Management, thumba la $1.2tn lomwe lili mu mzinda wa Midwestern US. Pamene adayamba kugwira ntchito m’zachuma zaka makumi atatu zapitazo, chinali “chododometsa chikhalidwe” kupita ku malo ogulitsa kumene anthu ochepa ankawoneka ngati iye, Thomas akukumbukira.

Koma ngakhale pano, akuti adalowa m’misonkhano yomwe makasitomala “akuganiza kuti ndine wothandizira, osati mtsogoleri wamkulu”. Pokhala ndi alangizi ochepa akuda omwe alipo, Thomas akuti, antchito akuda amakumana ndi zopinga zina pamene akuyesera kukwera makwerero amakampani pa kayendetsedwe ka katundu. Kulemba anthu “osalongosoka,” kumene antchito amakono akuvomereza ofuna ntchito kapena kukwezedwa pantchito, kaŵirikaŵiri kumapindulitsa anthu amene anaphunzira kusukulu zofanana kapena amene anakulira m’njira yofanana. Ponseponse, kugwira ntchito mu clubby world of asset management kumatha kukhala kosasangalatsa kwa ogwira ntchito ochepa, amauza anzanga Attracta Mooney ndi Madison Darbyshire mu izi kusambira mozama.

Pambuyo pa kuphedwa kwa a George Floyd mu 2020, makampani oyendetsa chuma padziko lonse lapansi okwana $110tn adawonekera poyesa kuwonetsa nkhawa zake zakusankhana mitundu. Otsogola m’mabizinesi otsogola sanangolonjeza pagulu kuti alimbikitse kusiyanasiyana m’magulu awo, adavoteranso kuchulukana kuti athandizire malingaliro a omwe ali ndi masheya oyitanitsa akuluakulu ena kuti achitenso chimodzimodzi.

Mukuwona chithunzithunzi chazithunzi zolumikizana. Izi zitha kuchitika chifukwa choti mulibe intaneti kapena JavaScript yayimitsidwa mumsakatuli wanu.

Patatha chaka chimodzi ndi theka, oyang’anira katundu akuvutika kuti akwaniritse zomwe amadzinenera kuti akufuna. Ogwira ntchito zakuda ndi mamembala amagulu ena ang’onoang’ono amakhalabe ocheperako m’gululi – makamaka m’maudindo akuluakulu – ndipo oyang’anira mafakitale akuti zitha kutenga zaka kuti awonjezere ntchito yolemba anthu ntchito kuti anthu ogwira nawo ntchito azikhala osiyanasiyana.

“Kulephera kusiyanasiyana si nkhani yamakhalidwe chabe, koma yokhudza magwiridwe antchito,” akutero Robert Ravens, woyambitsa wa Washington-based Diverse Asset Managers Initiative komanso wothandizira wamkulu wa loya wamkulu waku US.

Kodi mukuganiza kuti chingachitidwe chiyani kuti pakhale kusiyana pakati pa kasamalidwe ka chuma? Nditumizireni imelo: harriet.agnew@ft.com

Tchati cha sabata

Kukula kwachuma kwakhala chimodzi mwazofunikira ngodya zotentha kwambiri zamabizinesi ang’onoang’ono, pomwe makampani okulirapo amayesa misika yaboma ndikupeza kufunikira kwakukulu pakati pa osunga ndalama omwe akufuna kubweza ndalama zambiri. Wopereka deta Preqin akuti kukula kwakukula kwakula kuwirikiza kawiri kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2016, kufika pafupifupi $920bn kumapeto kwa Marichi. Magulu monga TPG ndi Permira zikuwonjezeka mu kukula kwa chilungamo. Koma pali zizindikiro za kutupa. “Masewerawa asintha kwambiri,” akutero Mike Turner, wothandizana nawo pakampani yazamalamulo Latham & Watkins. “Pali zambiri za FOMO [fear of missing out] Kuyika ndalama kumapitilira, osunga ndalama ambiri akubwera pamsika omwe samamvetsetsa bwino zamakampani komanso mwayi womwe akugulitsamo. “

Nkhani zapamwamba zomwe mwina simunazipeze patchuthi

Bill Stromberg, mkulu wotuluka wa Mtengo wapatali wa magawo T Rowe, anachenjeza za “kutenga chiopsezo chaulere” m’misika yotukuka chaka chatha ndipo anati osunga ndalama ayenera “kupewa ngozi” kuti asatenthedwe ndi msika wongopeka kwambiri.

Kuchuluka kwa ogwira ntchito ku Ray Dalio‘s Bridgewater Associates. Bungwe lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi la hedge fund lasankha akuluakulu awiri kusintha David McCormick, yemwe akunyamuka ulendo woyembekezeredwa ku Senate ya US.

Malo ochezera a crypto ku UK ali chinakulitsa chikoka chake ku Westminster ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa gulu la anthu opanga malamulo, monga ndale kumbali zonse za Atlantic akulimbikitsa kuyesetsa kuwongolera misika yachuma ya digito yomwe ikukula.

Otsatsa ena akutembenukira ku hedge funds kuti awathandize kuthana ndi kusintha komwe kungachitike pazachuma padziko lonse lapansi mchaka chomwe chikubwera. Ndi $500bn California Public Employees ‘Retirement System nzokayikitsa kukhala pakati pawo. Malipiro a Hedge fund khalani “zovuta”, akuti Marcie Frost, mkulu wamkulu wa ndondomeko yaikulu ya penshoni ya boma ya US.

Zizindikiro zopanda fungible zasintha kuchokera ku gawo la msika wa crypto kukhala bizinesi ya $ 40bn mu 2021. chaka chophuka momwe ogula adawononga pafupifupi ndalama zogulira digito monga zaluso zachikhalidwe.

Zomwe zimatchedwa kuti ndalama za activist zimafunikira kufufuza kwakukulu, akulemba motero mutu wa Lex Jonathan Guthrie. Mlingo weniweni wa ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi osunga ndalama monga Paul Singer ndi Patrick drahi nthawi zambiri amawerengedwa mopambanitsa.

Pali ochepa oyang’anira hedge fund omwe atha kupeza $ 1bn atangotaya osunga ndalama gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi a ndalama zawo. Koma Chris Rokos, woyambitsa $13bn Malingaliro a kampani Rokos Capital Management, ali wachita zomwezo.

Mapulani a penshoni ayenera kukhala omasuka kupanga zisankho popanda kulowerera ndale panthawi yomwe maboma akuyang’ana kugwiritsira ntchito miphika yopuma pantchito kuti akwaniritse zolinga zachuma, malinga ndi Quebec Deposit and Placement Fund, imodzi mwa ndalama zapenshoni zazikulu kwambiri ku Canada.

Makampani aku Britain akuyesera kuti azichita nawo Kukula kwachuma ku US. Ochuluka aiwo akufuna kutsata omwe akugulitsa malonda aku US omwe akukonzekera kubweza mabizinesi omwe akukula mwachangu komanso nthawi zina owopsa, malinga ndi Malingaliro a kampani OTC Markets Group.

Mphamvu zatsopano zomwe zimalola oyang’anira penshoni ku UK kuti akakhale mndende ngati ntchito zamakampani zikuwononga dongosolo lopuma pantchito. zimakhudza dealmaking, malinga ndi alangizi a penshoni. Ogula tsopano ali osamala kwambiri ndi makampani omwe ali ndi ndondomeko zopindulitsa.

Ndipo potsiriza

Dry January ndi overrated. Poganizira zimenezo, nayi Momwe Mungagwiritsire Ntchito kutsogolera ku 25 mipiringidzo ya hotelo komwe mutha kuyambitsa martini wowuma Januwale mwanjira.