Michel Barnier emerges as Macron’s opponent and demonstrates party loyalty

Although Michel Barnier’s friends and political allies did not give him a chance to win the Les Républicains right-wing presidential election when he called himself a candidate in the summer – not thinking he could beat Emmanuel Macron in April.

In recent weeks, the prospects for the former Brexit EU negotiator, who for the past five years has been better known in Brussels and across the Channel than he did in his native France, have begun to change.

Barnier’s popularity in the party, as well as the perception of some voters that he is seen as “more” president than his rivals, has given him a chance to win when LR members elect the person he wants to run with on December 4.

For several months the LR leaders have been Xavier Bertrand, who leads the Hauts-de-France region in the north, and Valérie Pécresse from the Ile-de-France region around Paris.

But Barnier – who calls himself a “pervert” – can be seen as a mediator. [in the LR]”, said Virginie Martin, a professor of politics at Kedge Business School in Paris.

Anyone who wins the party vote is promised support from the losers, prompting him to challenge Macron and distant politicians Marine Le Pen and Zric Zemmour at the Elysée Palace.

Ideally, it separates Barnier slightly from the other four with the hope of LR, with the right display to reduce downtime and streamline migration. But party fighters contrasted his loyalty to the LR with the chances of Bertrand and Pécresse, both of whom left the party temporarily to achieve their political goals.

François-Xavier Bellamy, a member of the European Parliament from the party, said:

One poll showed Barnier’s loyalty giving him a chance among the 80,000 LR followers who were members before the vote was announced.

But since then another 60,000 have paid € 30 each to sign up to vote for their favorite next month. No one is quite sure who has the most support among these newcomers.

Another advantage of Barnier is that he is well known as the “president” of the LR party. He has been in France and abroad for a number of years as Minister of State (environment, Europe, foreign affairs, agriculture) and European Commissioner.

“If you talk about the problem, then they are ahead,” said Patrick Hetzel, a member of the National Assembly, a 70-year-old supporter.

“[With Macron elected at 39] everyone said we had a young president of the republic, and now everyone sees the limit on having someone very young and probably inexperienced. . . The winner should make a real difference with Mr Macron and he is ready to do this. We need more authority. ”

Vincent Martigny, a professor of political science at Nice University, has admitted that Barnier – a tall and handsome man, though not far from the top of the Republican champion Charles de Gaulle – seems to have the qualities of a president.

“People think he has his shoulders, he has the right stuff,” Martigny said. “Barnier has something to do with being a leader. He’s been very vocal.”

But with the recent change in the LR party and all those who want to stand up as they seek to stop the bloodshed of voters in the general population, the anti-Muslim Zemmour could pose a threat to the party in a national campaign soon to begin in January. said Martigny.

This is because a well-known character like Barnier has to adhere to strict rules that are not well-known in crisis such as emigration and Europe, thus separating French voters left and center, or frustrating his party’s terrorists by lowering his previous stance.

“If you [the LR candidates] let’s say now in the campaign, most of them have to be aligned with the right wing, “Martigny said.

Barnier began his campaign by calling for a three- or five-year migration to France, then surprised his former EU allies by questioning the importance of European law and calling for a “criminal jurisdiction” over French immigration. This prompted a member of the Macron government to assert that “Barnier will not convince LR Eurosceptics to be a European ally”.

LR voters, however, appear to favor Barnier’s plans and reject the idea of ​​placing him in the same camp as the Eurosceptic Polish nationalists or Brexit Britain, arguing instead that his actions with the UK have made him aware of EU failures.

LR’s Bellamy said: “For him, Brexit was a warning that the people of Europe did not heed enough – especially on the move.”

“Barnier is playing too much because he deserves to be elected,” Martigny said, adding that the danger of the LR was that his opponents were centered on the right “so they leave a strange impression on anyone elected in the middle.”

Macron, who disrupted French politics and won in 2017 by promising not to “sit to the right or to the left”, remained a rival in April – but Barnier will have a much better chance of being a strong contender if he wins. supporting his party next month.