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Lula has left the details of Brazil’s financial plans if re-elected

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Before the presidential election, which he wants to win for a third term, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has said that the solution to Brazil’s problems is to “put the poor in the budget” and “pay taxes to the rich”.

The man, identified as Lula, made it clear to reporters this month that his goal was to fight inequality rather than follow a law banning public spending.

Going beyond that, information appears on what the former left-handed man may have stored up the largest wealth in Latin America, which is on the right hand side. Jair Bolsonaro in the hands of the rise of two trees and face instability in 2022.

Although the 76-year-old former businessman had announced his candidacy for the October election, he and his Workers’ Party, or PT, have changed their mind about raising public funds, banning business, enforcing labor laws and raising funds. All of this is followed by a major government responsibility.

“The goal of our party is wealth. This means that Brazil must achieve its goal of promoting economic development, “said Gleisi Hoffmann, president of PT.

Critics warn that such an approach should repeat past mistakes. Fourteen years of PT rule until 2016 culminated in a major economic decline in Brazil’s history, high risk and risk. opposition of Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff.

Yet its starting back to politics after a series of court cases were dropped due to technicalism last year, Lula’s remarks attracted the attention of many victims of the Covid-19 epidemic.

The remainder will receive 44 per cent of the first round of votes compared to the 24 per cent of Bolsonaro, according to a survey published this week by Ipespe / XP. However, the rejection of 43 percent of those expected to protest shows that humanitarian assistance is not equal.

For a well-known business group in the country, the question is whether Lula will take over if he is re-elected. Will he be a pragmatist who embraced economic beliefs when he took office in 2003, and reduced poverty and social services? Or the second leader who initiated the period to expand government intervention and waste money on addressing global economic crises?

“The hope is that Lula will be financially responsible,” said one banker, “and not have financial plans that will inevitably lead to the same catastrophe that occurred in Dilma state.”

In the meantime, the septuagenarian has been fond of directness. Participants insist they do not nominate a treasurer, which seems to eliminate the idea of ​​who wants to participate in the session.

Secrets were raised this month when Guido Mantega, a longtime PT finance minister who eventually lost confidence in investors, was appointed by the Lula camp to write a newspaper article for financial advisers for aspiring presidents.

While emphasizing that he did not mention Lula, many of the participants in a panel of about 80 economists who have been in talks with the former president described the economic recovery created by US President Joe Biden’s Covid stimulus package.

“We are not neoberals, we do not agree with a minority country, we do not accept a country with this inequality,” said Aloizio Mercadante, a former prime minister and director of the Perseu Abreu Foundation, a working PT tank. negotiations.

Other issues are more pressing for the party, such as the 2017 job change that claims to limit workers’ rights without increasing employment.

Following the initial decision to remove, the negotiations between the PT leadership now and the “reform” were discussed between government, corporations and business groups. The issues raised so far include zero-hour contracts, access to employment courts, corporate pay laws, and workers’ rights.

Some ideas can be frustrating for investors. With PT opposing the sale of large state-owned enterprises, Hoffman said the reductions expected to improve the Eletrobras’ power supply sector and Bolsonaro officials could be “revisited” if passed.

“If it affects development, it will not exist [that way]. It is a professional company. What wisdom can you give to an individual? ” he added.

Like a central bank he raised interestsome economists affiliated with PT criticize the reliance on fiscal policy to curb rising inflation and say there is a role for state-owned Petrobras.

The decisions made are such as changing the Company’s policy on diesel and petrol prices in line with global markets. Another is the “stabilization fund”, provided by taxes on exports, to help eliminate oil price instability.

“Rising prices have a number of reasons – they need to be addressed,” said Pedro Rossi, a professor at the State University of Campinas.

The winner of the vote is Lula’s call for a 50 percent raise under the country’s poorest relocation program, which Bolsonaro has. previously raised to R $ 400 ($ 73) per month.

But with Brazil’s high debt levels, the biggest problem for investors is the management of public accounts. Currently, the law restricts the growth of the state budget and the rate of inflation.

Nelson Barbosa, a former finance minister under Rousseff who participated in the negotiations with Lula, said this needed to be changed to make more money available to help recover from the Covid crisis.

The new policy could include a variety of financial and legal support to prevent the collapse of health and education funding.

“It could be a target that allows [spending] growth, but not explosively, “said Barbosa.” Further economic growth will be needed in 2023..

Funds can be repaid initially by lending, he added, followed by an increase in government revenue through growth and tax reform.

The government is already pushing for a tax on profits, lower corporate prices and free up low-income earners. But PT wants a more advanced system.

Some observers believe that Lula will take over slowly, not because of the specifics of conspiring to control elections but also to control Brazil.

The idea was reinforced at his recent press conference, where Lula said he was open to the right-wing politician and former ally Geraldo Alckmin as his rival.

“The market today has a lot of hope that Lula can be a better, more responsible and more efficient president, than Bolsonaro,” the bank said.

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