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U.S. officials sit down with Russian ambassadors to Geneva on Monday for the first consecutive meeting that could be crucial to European security.
Russia has put its red lines on two treaties – and with about 100,000 troops gathered around Eastern Ukraine borders, he threatened to take part in the war if he did not meet them. US and European officials will oppose Moscow’s demands for European security: to allow countries to choose their own foreign policy and security and to ensure that borders are not forced to change.
Expectations of an agreement on a new security system between Moscow and the west and the low.
“I do not think we will see success next week,” Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said on Sunday. “We’ll see if there are any reasons to move forward,” [but] it is difficult to imagine this happening when Russia has a gun to the prime minister of Ukraine. ”
In Geneva Wendy Sherman, Blinken’s deputy, has tried to share what she has with her Russian counterpart Sergei Ryabkov that could pave the way for further negotiations.
“Right now it’s a lot of talking, not talking,” said one western official.
But Ryabkov said Moscow expects “great potential” for that The US and NATO will not take its interests seriously. “We will not tolerate anything under duress or threats from Western countries,” Ryabkov told RIA Novosti.
Do not start
Ryabkov said talks that did not take Russia’s interests as a start would be “futile” and stressed that Moscow should only negotiate on its own.
“We’re not going to go with our hands, we have a clear goal that we have to achieve based on what we set out to do. That’s all,” Ryabkov said.
But Moscow’s strong demand that no Nato re-enactment be strongly denied by Washington and its allies.
“I do not see NATO or the US wanting to scratch Russia,” said Rose Gottemoeller, a former NATO deputy secretary general and former assistant secretary general of the US Secretary of Defense. “Nato does not change its strategy for development, time. It is part of Nato’s DNA.”
Andrew Weiss, Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the agreement similar to the Yalta treaties between the Soviet Union, the US and the UK which divided Europe after World War II was doubtful,
With the exception of former US President Donald Trump “it is difficult to imagine a common American political ambition to entertain the Russian people that brought bad memories of Yalta and other events in the 19th century that brought great suffering to Russia. “he said.
Russia’s second demand – that Nato regimes refrain from using force or weapons in allied countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union – will also be rejected. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, said he would send a letter to Friday eastern members of the alliance until the second membership.
In 1997 Nato agreed not to permanently suspend troops from the Soviet bloc and to send troops or small arms into those countries.
The plan changed Russia after the Crimean invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Nato has increased its presence in Poland and the Baltic states. But the armies are smaller and are placed around. Ideally it can be repatriated but it is not possible without Russia’s escape from Ukraine.
What you can agree on
Russia’s call for a moratorium on the use of anti-aircraft missiles could provide a reason for the resumption of arms embargoes. The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty containing such weapons, which fell in 2019 as a result of Russian violations, was broken when Moscow sent its 9M729 missile. The US could be ready to negotiate new regimes if Russia agrees to integrate 9M729 with authentication methods.
Moscow’s demands to restrict military service and to exercise within its borders could be linked to a renegotiation of the European Union (CFE) Treaty, which Russia abolished in 2015.
Finally, Russia’s request for transparency, negotiation and exchange agreements on security threats can be achieved through the use of existing methods, known as the Vienna Documents, which Moscow has largely ignored.
Three Russian summits this week could set the stage for a divisive dialogue: with the US deploying weapons, with Nato deploying force and sportsmanship, and with OSCE on display.
Despite concerns about Russia’s violations of Russian law, the West should be prepared to negotiate a security agreement, “said Patricia Lewis, chief of international security at UK think-tank Chatham House.
“You can enter this with good faith – with your eyes open.”
Ways forward
A good result of this week’s meetings will be the commitment of both parties to a “clear and clear plan” on other issues, Gottemoeller said, but it will require Moscow to achieve “benefits”.
Progress may also depend on Russia’s decline in Ukraine’s borders. Blinken said Russia’s violence against Ukraine would be “ahead and in the middle” at the summit, but pointed out that Monday’s session would not directly address the so-called Minsk solution to the conflict in the eastern Donbas, which is being run by Paris and Berlin. .
The big question, say experts, is whether the Kremlin wants the talks to fail from the start.
“They don’t just ask for things that you know are not original, they ask them in a way that they know they can’t find,” says Michael Kofman, a senior scientist at CNA. , a polling station in Washington.
“The plan, even the things that are in Russia’s mind that need to be discussed, is so dangerous that it is impossible,” said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at Rand Corporation, a US think tank. “This is really if they are willing to give up what they want and accept less than all. [set]. ”
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