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Author and co-author of FT
I have learned one valuable lesson from the coronavirus: don’t waste time trying to predict the future.
Just as I never thought I would be home all year, nor would I have predicted what would happen when epidemics in the US were reduced. I think a lot of Americans will have a hard time finding a job after being laid off; instead, jobs are hard to come by. Every area of life after a plague – and death – is affected by unemployment.
In the cemetery where my dead mother and brother are buried, and where I will sleep one day, I sent emails last week apologizing for the long grass and weeding of the cemetery, saying they could not find enough workers to cut the grass.
When my family went for a snack, at a Korean barbecue restaurant, we found only two employees eating a lot of diners (memo to cooks: we didn’t get our pork garlic).
Some urban dams in the Midwest have to be delayed in opening or closing hours due to a shortage of rescuers. And the first thrill in the Midwest, Cedar Point, is due to close for two days a week throughout June due to limited work. Cedar Point paid double the $ 20 per hour and offered a sign-up bonus of $ 500 for its drivers to drive and steer vehicles to crash regularly.
Julio Cano, a large business manager for the Bien Trucha group, which owns a Mexican-inspired restaurant outside of Chicago, offers $ 700 to employees who send everyone on a “home” job such as a cooking or laundry line. This now starts at $ 15 per hour, compared to $ 12.50 or $ 13 before the epidemic.
Cano, who was supposed to close his restaurant for an hour on the weekend for workers to rest, says other businesses are also struggling: local banks have no calendars and “seed managers at some of our restaurants are directing supervisors to come and do this.” , instead of an hour’s work ”.
He worries about the possible aftermath of this “war”. “We are fighting against a very small group of people, to compete with them Amazon and Finding and losing employees in other companies, ”he says.
Jeffrey Korzenik, chief technology officer at Fifth Third Bank, says he is “surprised” by the rapid decline. “I think it would be over by the end of this year,” he says, adding that the extra unemployment insurance offered to the unemployed during the epidemic “has helped” the decline.
Economists say most low-income earners earn a lot of money by collecting state and federal plagues unemployment insurance as much as they can in working. (Full disclosure: some of my relatives are getting the good ones grown). Many countries are rapidly eliminating unemployment benefits.
But there are other reasons for unemployment, says Korzenik. “If you have lost your job you are working at the Magnificent Mile store in Chicago and new jobs are available in Joliet [a suburb an hour away], sometimes inappropriate. He added that workers over the age of 65 were also reluctant to retire, or retire during the epidemic, and this contributed to the shortage.
“But it has been a very good year for youth unemployment,” he says, noting that young people are often less likely to get lazy to come back, have less anxiety about Covid-19 than adults and do not often pay for child care. Participation for 16- to 19-year-olds in the U.S. domestic population rose from a record 20.9% in April 2020 to 33.2% last month.
But Cano says the young people he recruits do not want to do “household chores” such as washing dishes, and cemetery workers say cemeteries are not at the top of the list for most young people. That’s why young people can’t address the shortage of self-employed workers.
“I’m afraid this will end,” Cano said. Many workers may return to the market after unemployment benefits in September, “but I’m afraid we’re making a bribe… This is not sustainable”.
Once again, the future may surprise us. It has really happened before.
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