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India’s economy is recovering but rising prices are threatening recovery

Increased funding for festivals has raised hopes of India regaining its status as the fastest growing economy in the world, as experts warn of a major crisis in which consumers and their businesses continue to suffer from the coronavirus epidemic.

Selling on Diwali, a Hindu lantern festival celebrated last week, rose to Rs1.25tn ($ 16.8bn), according to Nomura, a 75 percent jump from last year and more than 20% of the regular. – annual growth.

This increase confirms how much economic activity has changed, which contributes to the stability of the economy. This is due to a sharp drop in Covid-19 daily cases to about 11,000, from 400,000 in May when a brutal epidemic of disease flooded the health system.

Other signals, such as mobility and the need for electricity, have returned. But economists are divided on how stable repayment is, such as rising prices pinch consumers and the lack of coal threatens to consume in the industry.

“The cases are over. . . and because last year’s Diwali was over, everyone was out by then, “says Shumita Deveshwar, head of research at India at TS Lombard.” This is a temporary boost. I do not know if it will be okay for a long time.

The IMF expects India’s total revenue to grow by 9.5 percent last March, compared with 8 percent in China and more than any other economy. This, however, shows an improvement after a 7.3 percent decline last year, and will allow economic growth to fluctuate slightly over the past two years.

India on Friday unveiled the latest figures on inflation and industrialization, which are expected to highlight some of the economic challenges.

Industrial growth has been slowing down since the summer, fueled by factors such as a slowdown in automotive production that is compounded by the global semiconductor decline. Recent lack of coal, India’s largest energy source, prompted the government to diversify its industries such as the steel industry.

Investigators said a power outage threatened the release of steel and other centralized weapons. “If it could affect other industries,” said Aurodeep Nandi, an economist at Nomura. “I don’t think we’ve reached the point where all of this is still reflected in the data.”

The decline in commodity prices, meanwhile, has dropped from 6 percent in June to 4.3 percent in September. But the continued rise in prices has upset consumers, prompting the government to reduce its fuel and diesel tax rates this month.

“We’re seeing signs that create a mixed image,” Nandi said. “It’s a challenge to understand what’s going on and to grow right now.”

Oxford Economics, a research group, says vaccine development in India is essential to aid recovery.

India has provided one jab of Covid-19 over half of his people, and a quarter of fully protected. Oxford expects 70 percent of Indians to receive the full vaccine by the first quarter of next year.

“There seems to be a slowdown in growth,” said Priyanka Kishore, chief executive of Oxford Economics in India. “It’s a soft patch. . .[but]I look forward to 2022. “

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