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How the Covid Epidemic Ends: comes after the Omicron?

As the weary world faces the third year of coronavirus, as its prevalence increases with the most highly contagious species to date, there is hope among many scientists that the global epidemic will be reduced by 2022.

Although a Omicron coronavirus variants threatening the problem in the next few months, events that appear to be progressing in the wake due to the increasing immunity of people around the world, through vaccinations and natural diseases, which could make the effects of the virus less severe.

“The growth in Omicron cases in Europe and North America has been very rapid and we can see a rapid decline in the next month or two, although it may take four to six months for the change to return globally,” he said. Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome medical foundation.

After the Omicron wave was over, “a fixed defense could give us some quiet time, but there are a number of ways to play it,” he said.

An encouraging signal came on Thursday when South Africa, where Omicron was first registered in November, lifted the travel ban that was imposed when the number of cases increased. “All indications are that the country may have passed the fourth peak,” the official statement said.

Tim Colbourn, professor of epidemiology at University College London, said: “It is reasonable to assume that Covid’s weight could be reduced by 95 percent by 2022, so that it is no longer the 10 biggest health problem.

Some experts see Omicron himself as a guide to the future evolution of the Sars-Cov-2 virus, since natural selection favors mutations that pass as quickly and efficiently as possible among people with the immune system.

Laboratory tests show that Omicron’s mutations have made it more contagious than the posterior and upper extremities – and tend to spread faster – but less deeply penetrate deep into the lungs, which tend to be more destructive.

These assumptions are supported by epidemiological evidence that the risk of serious illness is reduced and half or more by Omicron.

Omicron’s massive outbreak represents an astonishing 3bn epidemic in the world over the next two months, as many as in the first two years of the epidemic, according to an example by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

“But the prevalence of the disease and these cases has led to more hospitalization than the Delta waves or the fifth global threat,” said Chris Murray, chief of the agency.

Evidence to date suggests that Omicron abolished Delta as a global ecosystem, just as Delta wiped out previous species. “I am strengthened by this hope,” Farrar says.

“I would be very concerned if you had a variety of colors that rotate at the same time, because it means they are using different species, and we can have several dangerous species that interact.”

People line up to test Covid in Portugal © Horacio Villalobos / Corbis / Getty Images

Even if Omicron poses a serious problem, another type of virus is definite.

Even genetic mutations are commonplace during viruses – and no one has ever noticed them the amount of adjustment known as Omicron – the environmental challenges that allow others to do well are obvious.

The country most people have encountered Sars-Cov-2 loves species that spread quickly and easily and avoid the need for immunity. Mutations that make the virus more dangerous may not make the virus more efficient and may even be as flawed as preventing the spread of the virus.

“You may even try to discover some of the most dangerous and dangerous forms of death. . . I do not know how it will be possible for the virus, “said Jennifer Rohn, a cell scientist and UCL professor.

Whether germs cause the disease to fade over time is a matter of common ground among scientists. But Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, believes it is true of coronaviruses.

Four human coronaviruses, which have spread around the world for a long time producing mild or moderate symptoms, may have caused major epidemics when they first migrated from animals to humans.

In particular, the recent arrival, OC43, passed through cattle in 1889 and triggered a so-called epidemic. “Russian flu”, Hunter believes, has caused fewer waves of disease like Covid for four or five years – though not everyone believes the evidence.

“Sars-Cov-2 will continue to produce new products forever but our mobile security will provide protection against serious infections whenever we become infected,” he said. “Eventually we will stop worrying about it.”

This can work if the Sars-Cov-2 is modified along the line. However, there is a small risk of a sudden evolutionary jump to “something left that does not come from existing generations”, Farrar said.

One possibility is that Sars-Cov-2 is evolving between animals and back into humans. A flu pandemic is usually caused by a flu virus that jumps from a bird or a pig.

Or Sars-Cov-2 is able to exchange genes with a specific virus through “genetic reunification”. For example, if someone contracted the virus simultaneously with Sars-Cov-2 and the corresponding Mers coronavirus, which is not common in humans but kills about 40 percent of those infected, it is possible to think of a dangerous viral infection that occurs. combining transmissibility and lethality.

Although such evolution is impossible, many experts consider it impossible. “I’m more scared of another pandemic due to a new virus that we still don’t know more than another Sars-Cov-2 virus,” Colbourn said.

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