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Taiwanese ambassadors on a rollercoaster. When they enjoy in avowals help from Japan and in the west, concerned with the integrity of Honduras – one of the few countries with diplomatic relations with Taipei in defiance of China.
Xiomara Castro, left politician elected president of the United States last week, pledged to campaign for the establishment of diplomatic relations with China, which could reduce Taipei’s alliance to 14th.
His ally and ally Castro withdrew his commitment but many observers believe that Honduras will be on the Chinese side.
The struggle between the US and China for power in Central America – a region that Washington has been politically and economically in control of, and sees as its backbone – is based on a moving relationship.
“The end of the conflict between Beijing and Taipei, the economic needs of Central American governments, China’s economic rise, and the immunization talks are all pushing these countries away from the US and into China as a partner,” said Evan Ellis. a professor at the US Army War College researching Latin American-Chinese relations. “Another reason is the re-emergence of the most populous leaders in the region.”
In the last five years, Beijing has already taken over three Taipei organizations in Central America and the Caribbean: El Salvador, Panama and the Dominican Republic.
4%
Foreign debt Honduras has debt in China compared to 0.01% in the US
But since El Salvador changed in 2018, the US has said pushed back. Washington remembered his ambassador and placed Salvadoran officials who criticized him for corruption and undemocratic practices in support of Beijing in a series of bans. Some analysts believe that the US will do everything in its power to prevent Honduras from joining China.
Washington had to deal with a major migration from the country. Almost 320,000 Hondurans have been confronted by U.S. police at the southern border between October 2020 and September 2021, accounting for more than 3 percent of the country’s population.
Honduras is also of great importance in the US, with its Joint Task Force Bravo air base, Washington’s most important military base fighting Latin American drugs.
“The US will not let Honduras go because it is important for their homeland security,” said Antonio Yang, a Taiwanese Latin American scholar and a respected professor at the National Defense University in Tegucigalpa.
Brian Nichols, US Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, traveled to Honduras ahead of the election and met with Castro – experts say they were used to prevent him from embracing China. Castro’s spokesman did not respond to his request.
The US is still an important ally and a major market in Honduras, a fragile democracy threatened by drug trafficking, corruption and sectarian violence. His fortune fell 9 percent last year. One-fifth of all global household goods come from remittances, mainly from the US, and about one-third of exports, which include coffee, bananas and sugar, go there.
Honduras is a major US ally as the Joint Task Force Bravo, Washington’s most important anti-drug force in Latin America © Orlando Sierra / AFP via Getty Images
But China has been very active. Last year, state-owned companies completed the construction of a 105MW hydropower pool in Honduras. According to World Bank data, the country owes 4 percent of its foreign debt to China and only 0.01 percent to US.
“Dealing with the Chinese people is great, as in all of Latin America, as well as promoting trade and urban activities,” said Margaret Myers of the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank in Washington. “We are also looking at what the China Communist Party’s communications department wants to establish a relationship with.”
Castro said in his own words campaign that a change in relations with China could offer Honduras economic opportunities, a Chinese-made Covid-19 vaccine and cheaper drugs.
But many Honduran businessmen are keen to maintain ties with Taiwan, fearing the breakdown of US relations they see as important.
Luis Larach, who owns trade in tourism, energy and real estate, thinks Honduras should take a closer look – trying to persuade US companies to relocate factories to the Asian region – to drive economic growth.
“You don’t have to have a lot of knowledge to know that our greatest potential for development lies with the United States,” he said. “The old diplomatic relationship with Taiwan has been good for our country and our region and, I think, should continue.”
But Taiwanese experts are concerned about Beijing’s economic growth.
“Indeed, US influence is declining and China is growing,” said Antonio Hsiang, a Taiwanese professor at the National Academy of Political and Strategic Studies in Chile and the author of a new book on Taiwan-Latin America relations. “While the US is the main supporter of Honduras, corruption is so serious that the people of Honduras do not see much.”
Some believe that history can help Castro. Her husband, Manuel Zelaya, was ousted from the presidency in 2009 which many experts believe the US supported. “Castro should keep this in mind, and Taiwan should pay the price,” Hsiang said.
Honduran academics criticize this and emphasize that the relationship can remain strong, given the US need for trusted allies in the region.
“It is difficult to know what will happen,” said Julio Raudales, dean of the National Autonomous University of Honduras. “Depending on how the negotiations with the US go.”
Whatever the final verdict, experts believe that it is best for Castro to end the controversy.
“Their recognition in Taiwan is an important part of attracting aid, or a little opposition, from Washington,” Myers said. “The importance of Honduras to China will diminish once embassy relations are established. This is the only power they have. Once they use it, it is gone.”
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