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There were two reasons why French security companies celebrated the United Arab Emirates he agreed buying 80 Rafale soldiers from Dassault Aviation last month.
First, it was a sweet revenge for a humiliation last summer when Australia withdrew from the underwater alliance in favor of an alliance with the US. There must have been a satisfied frisson in Paris when Abu Dhabi, days after agreeing to buy a French soldier, suspended negotiations and US purchasing an Lockheed Martin F-35.
Second, the UAE system – important eto compare € 14 billion – will guarantee Rafale production until 2031, as well as work for more than 400 French companies in retail companies.
It will also help finance the French currency by promoting the future in Rafale, which is expected to be operational until 2050s.
However, even though the treaty has many positive developments from the French, it could undermine Europe’s efforts to secure a security treaty. Because it strengthens Dassault’s hand in the ongoing negotiations with German-based Airbus for security in Europe’s Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
The last time Dassault – as well as extending the French security ministry – saw that he was not getting what he needed for the European military program, it said. he left. The result was a Rafale of Dassault.
Established in 2017 with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, FCAS was a political force. It showed the willingness of both countries to strengthen European military power after Britain withdrew from the EU. In 2019, Spain connected software.
The crisis began when politicians offered to the industry. From the very beginning, it has been characterized by disputes over technical distribution and leadership of the most difficult sections of the program. The conflict was amplified by very different ideas of what the alliance means.
A French security official stated: “The unity of the French people is at stake,” especially in the French leadership. “In Germany, the other side is about the best athletes, as well as the industry.”
The operation also forced two deadly enemies – Dassault and Airbus Defense and Space. But last year it seemed that Europe’s political ambitions were improving. The agreement on the starting point was he smirked and industrial agreements were reached on seven of the seven pillars of the project, human and non-operational aviation, space and tertiary communications, modern underlying technologies, artificial intelligence and more.
But divisions remain on the seventh pillar – the next generation warplane – and there is no sign of disruption.
Both sides have good reason to dig their heels. Dassault, who is responsible for independence in France in fighter jets, says it needs to develop and refine its own self-regulation strategy, for example. But Germany expects its companies to become more professional, having pledged billions in the project.
This is where the UAE Rafale deal can improve, says Francis Tusa, a consultant and editor of Defense Analysis. “It has changed the equation,” he says. “France no longer needs Germany. The profits it gains from the UAE agreement will help raise funds for Rafale.”
“The days of the operation will be calculated only if the Germans understand where they are at risk,” added Tusa. “They are not the same in the industry.”
Meanwhile, plans by the new German government to impose a ban on arms exports – which could reduce Nato and the EU alone – are fueling controversy. Such restrictions on exports “could be fatal”, said a French security official.
It would be very difficult for European ambitions if France were to choose to leave the European fighter. It could also be the failure of Macron, who prioritized a treaty on France’s EU leadership. But presidential elections are approaching in April and the Dassault family is not just overseeing France’s largest security company. It contains the political newspaper Le Figaro.
In the end, even if only politicians on both sides can solve the problem, it can wait until France goes to the polls. But as instability continues, larger risks for Europe are beginning to fade.
peggy.hollinger@ft.com
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