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False Predictions for Weather and Weather Disasters


Predicting the weather it can be a misunderstood science. The weather app on your phone is good for determining if it can rain at some point in the day, but it doesn’t really help if you want to know if there will be rain in central London at 3 o’clock on Sunday. If you need to dry, it is best to keep the umbrella or stay indoors.

For most people, not knowing what will happen in the next hour is a little difficult. But when it comes to electricity efficiency, not knowing what the weather will do next is not only frustrating, it is even more important for air emissions. If we were to predict the weather and climate change, we would be able to halt the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere because we did not know what the clouds would do.

Here is the problem. On a hot summer day in Great Britain, solar energy can account for about 30% of the island’s electricity generation. The actual number varies widely, but in the ideal environment – solar panels run smoothly on cold days but in the sun – they can generate 9 gigawatts (GW), a fraction of 30 GW of electricity. So far, so good. But if a large cloud falls to the southwest, where most of Britain’s major power lines are located, a large portion of the renewable energy suddenly disappears into the grid – similar to all other power stations right there. Hundreds of megawatts of power are gone, like that.

The loss of total electrical power in a matter of minutes is not necessarily a bad thing, so to compensate for this, electrical networks create energy sources to enter and correct any corruptions that result from solar eclipses. In Great Britain, the responsibility for distributing and distributing this energy goes to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO), which asks the gas station, which usually burns gas, to generate more energy so that solar power can stop unexpectedly.

Fat trees and slow-moving animals. “We want to have a power plant that can last more than five or a half minutes, because that’s how wind and electricity change so fast,” said Jan Kleissl, professor of renewable energy and environmental management at the University of California San Diego. But oil refineries do not work that way. They take a long time to close and they work best when they are working hard. This reduction also encourages the power grids to increase power only when solar or wind power falls.

One way to circumvent this is to improve the forecast. If we were to know the great potential of Great Britain’s potential emissions, ESOs would be able to replenish its energy reserves, and reduce global gas emissions. In other words, if we were to determine the amount of solar energy that falls on the grid every five minutes, we could be sure that we are using every kilowatt of energy instead of just hiding our bets and the extra electricity generated from fossil fuels.

Jack Kelly thinks he knows how to solve these prophecies. A former researcher at DeepMind, a clever writing company, in 2019 Kelly discovered Open Weather Preparation, nonprofit aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through machine learning. “I’m a machine researcher who is passionate about climate change and I try to do everything I can to achieve this,” Kelly says. He estimates that prediction in the UK would be possible save 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide emitted annually, and will be necessary if the National Grid ESO achieves its 2025 goal of using zero emissions whenever it is sufficient the generation that can be passed on also exists.


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