Young people, without leaders and unprepared, protesters gathered with he made a storm Government buildings across Kazakhstan, knocked down the statue of the first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, set fire to his former home and clashed with police.
What united them was their song: “Shal, ket!” (Elder, get out!)
It tells of 81-year-old Nazarbayev, who has ruled Kazakhstan since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 following five controversial elections. He remained a loyal Russian ally in the security and economic circles of Moscow.
In 2019, he quit after electing an unscrupulous successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, but remained in office as head of the Security Council.
Tokayev initially tried to appease his opponents.
Wednesday, he dissolved the government, removed Nazarbayev from the Security Council and reduced fuel prices that led to riots in the western town on January 2.
But when the disturbed police appeared unable to stop rallies, violence and theft, Tokayev called on the Russian security forces to help “eliminate the terrorists”.
Civilians and police have died in the conflict, and police have been beheaded. There were no reports of deaths of protesters in the heavily controlled country, while Wednesday’s internet shutdown made it difficult to obtain reliable information.
To some observers, Tokayev’s move marks Moscow’s chance to regain power in Kazakhstan, whose major hydrocarbon weapons have made it a major economic hub in Central Asia.
“For some, it is a well-known offensive, and for others – an excellent opportunity to repress the USSR by harassing dictators who have given up their country to save their skin and what remains of their power,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a regional expert, said. and a researcher at Germany’s Bremen University, told Al Jazeera.
Moscow, to some extent, has distanced itself from the turmoil.
The Kremlin says Kazakhstan could “solve its domestic problems” and warn of foreign interference.
Meanwhile, the Russian-led Soviet republic is heading to Kazakhstan to restore order.
The organization is known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and includes Russia and the five former Soviet republics. The announcement of his plans for the jump came Wednesday night with Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan.
‘The disturbance is completely different’
While Kazakh officials have also called the protesters “extremists”, the majority of young Kazakh youth are disenfranchised, have no visible leaders and are not supported by the unrelenting opposition in Kazakhstan.
“Nothing ordinary [organisational] formed by well-known leaders, to date this has been the criticism of workers from large factories, apparently, small businesses and young people, “Mitrokhin said.
The demonstrations are in stark contrast to any post-Soviet protests that were easily overlooked and crushed, one observer said.
“The turmoil is at a very different level – nationally – and it shows how the past settlement was a sham, and was based on the division of the spoils by small, innumerable people,” said Kevork Oskanian, a university lecturer. of Exeter in the United Kingdom, told Al Jazeera.
The protests also show that people want to change politics in all areas.
Four of the five former Soviet republics in Central Asia, which are predominantly Muslim, a region rich with more than 65 million people between Russia, China and Afghanistan, were ruled by senior leaders who cut their teeth in politics as communists.
Even in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, the youngest president of the region, 53-year-old Sadyr Japarov, was a member of the Young Communist Party and said he dreamed of becoming “like” one of the longest serving Soviet leaders, Leonid Brezhnev.
For three decades after the fall of the Soviet Union, Central Asian leaders have used the threat of “sectarian disruption” as a prelude to dissent and dissent, increasing their power through controversial elections, extending time and popular opposition “referendums”. and Western countries.
The Kazakh protests are not just a warning to the Nazarbayev tribe that has created a “tyrannical, hydrocarbon-based regime,” Oskanian researcher said.
“Some dictatorial regimes across the country who have similar practices should be monitored carefully, at least [Russian President] Vladimir Putin, “he said.
Even Moscow’s strong tradition came to a head “removing” Putin’s presidential speech last year that allowed him to do so. remain in office until 2036, The Kremlin did not cultivate directly the Central Asian powers.
It strengthened ties with Kyrgyzstan and led to the withdrawal of the United States military following three terrorist attacks that toppled three presidents in 2005, 2010 and 2020.
His relationship with the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, was warm until his death in 2016 and went well under his successor Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
“Russia is not building anything in the region, nothing but its presence and presence,” Pavel Luzin, a Russian specialist for the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera.
This presence has been evident in the Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan war zones, the Soviet-cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, the Caspian-based navy and Moscow’s peacekeeping force in Afghanistan, bordering three of the five former Soviet Union . , ”Luzin said.
As for the ordinary Kazakhs, the demonstrations were what they saw coming – and fear.
“It’s a mixture of hope and fear,” said a Almaty resident, who asked Al Jazeera not to give his name due to uncertainty.
They are concerned about the potential for participation of civil rights activists who are considered a threat by Kazakh nationalists and a number of minority ethnic groups.
Patriots “will be worse off,” he said, describing his wife, a Korean national.
Moscow and Beijing, another growing power in the region, tend to encourage these leaders, but political or economic support means little to the recent Soviet generation who see limited opportunities for political activity and need opportunities to express their dissatisfaction.
An international observer said President Tokayev could “end protests” now and put pressure on police.
“But these demonstrations have shown a great deal of resentment among the people over the crisis over oil prices,” Ivar Dale, senior adviser to the Norwegian Helsinki Committee on Human Rights, told Al Jazeera.
Dale lived in Kazakhstan for a number of years and visited the town of Zhanaozen, where the protests began on January 2 – and took place in 2011, resulting in the killing of 16 protesters by police and a number of punishments across the country.
“It is no coincidence that this started in Zhanaozen, where the authorities forced dissatisfaction 10 years ago. Corruption around Kazakhstan’s elite is visible to everyone, and it cannot be hidden by constantly blocking the news media or closing independent newspapers. Another important factor needs to change,” he said. .
