Bosnian President Serb Dodik has refused to impose sanctions as tensions mount

The US sanctions against Milorad Dodik last week underscored a shift in sentiments toward the Bosnian Serb leader in the western cities – as well as the initial threat of ethnic conflicts in the Balkans.

Dodik was first elected Serb leader in Bosnia two decades ago, following a peace agreement that ended most of the worst conflicts in Europe since World War II. He was seen in the west as a man capable of helping Bosnia – a division between the Serb-dominated group and another controlled by the Croats and Bosniaks – further through his sect.

But an increasingly patriotic politician has cited the 1995 Dayton peace treaties as a way to the West. He has boycotted Bosnian organizations since July and seeks to end the Bosnia Serb agreement on issues such as security, taxation and criminal justice. Hope for what can happen there is a quasi-secession has raised international warnings about the dangers of certain forms of violence.

Last week, Washington relocated and suspended Dodik-linked assets in the US due to “disruptive and fraudulent” threats to Bosnian peace. This week, the EU threatened to do the same with its sanctions, condemning “false” allegations at a series of protests in Serb-held territory in Bosnia on January 9.

Dodik, who has approached the authorities including Vladimir Putin, Russian President, has responded with a sneer.

“If they think I’m going to be punished, they’re wrong,” he told RTRS television after US sanctions. “I have a new goal to fight for the freedom we have been fighting for 26 years.”

The Dayton Alliance divided Bosnia into a sovereign state of the Serb Republic and the Federation, controlled by the Croats and the Bosniaks, with two connected by a weak central government. Serbs make up about 1.3m of Bosnians 3.3m. Global oversight has banned violence for years, but over time the construction has deepened the racial divisions used by leaders like Dodik, experts say.

Dodik’s threats came after Valentin Inzko, the Bosnian Ambassador to the United States, issued a ruling. refusing to kill people ban in July, just before resignation. The Office of the High Representative was formed in the Dayton treaties to help establish peace and to establish democratic institutions.

Haris Silajdzic, the former prime minister and president of Bosnia, who helped bring about a ceasefire, believes Dodik wants the Serb Republic to relinquish its territory and assets to the federal government.

“They want. . . to gain Bosnia and Herzegovina wealth, ”said Silajdzic. He and other politicians and experts have said that this means Dodik’s correction.

Valery Perry, senior vice president of the Democratization Policy Council in Sarajevo, said there was a high risk of corruption. “It is unfortunate that the international community has not come back to oppose this,” he said.

Dodik did not respond to a request for comment.

Majda Ruge, a senior counterpart in the European Council on Foreign Relations, called Dodik’s secession “growing”, adding that tax separations alone would cost the Serb Republic an annual budget of $ 360m on lost property, compared to all domestic expenses. $ 7bn.

Elections are due to take place in Bosnia in October. Critics in the Serb Republic say its benefits encourage Dodik to fight issues as a matter of conscience.

“Dodik is a fool,” said Branislav Borenovic, chairman of the opposition PDP. “He is trying to keep the problems on the list. It is the only way for him to stay in power. He has no real answers to the financial problems, epidemics, corruption, migration, legal problems.”

Borenovic also said a ban on genocide helped Dodik. “Inzko enacted the order, he issued [Dodik’s party] “new fuel, the problem – and they will use it as much as possible, until the election if possible,” he said.

Inzko said he wanted to do the right thing, calling Dodik a “immoral man” who “tried to destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina”.

Dodik, Inzko said, “he was in the west, now he is mocking in the west. He said one time [wartime Bosnian Serb leader and convicted war criminal Radovan] Karadzic was a war criminal and should have been handed over to The Hague, now they respect him ”.

Dodik’s threats to secession come just as the West has been fighting for power in the Balkans and Russia and China. Since 2006, Dodik has strengthened ties with Putin, whose main goal in the region is to prevent it. the rise of the EU and NATO. Dodik visited the Russian leader in December and said Putin had confirmed his support for the “liberal West” movement.

However, Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia, has seceded from Dodik despite his Serbian counterpart in the West.

“People of all races have made a lot of mistakes in Bosnia,” Vucic told the Financial Times in a recent interview in Belgrade. “Removal of rights and authority in the Serb Republic, disobedience to the people. . . But you must be 100 percent strict in following the Dayton peace treaty with Bosnian law. ”

Sources in Bosnia and Western diplomats say that while the US move may increase sanctions, the West is also keeping the door open for talks with the Bosnian Serb leader. “This is one of the reasons why we have not become as numerous as people want,” the United States Department of State head of state said.

ECFR’s Ruge said he hoped a co-operative response in the west would force Dodik to change his isolationist approach. “It can be avoided,” he said, “if the main western headlines reach one page.”