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Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will discuss ways to prevent conflict from escalating into a series of talks between the US and Chinese presidents on Monday over Taiwan and Beijing nuclear weapons.
The two leaders made two phone calls this year but people familiar with the meeting said both sides were lowering their expectations on the outcome, which is not described as a “meeting”.
Jake Sullivan, a national security adviser, last week said the US and China were “tough competition” but there was “there is no reason why competition should turn into conflicts”. He said all parties should make sure it is done.
The most famous place is Taiwan. Washington panicked as China flew fighter jets to Taiwan airport. Beijing worries that Biden could weaken the “one China” principle when the US recognized Beijing as China’s seat of power since 1979.
Speaking to Asia-Pacific leaders last week, Xi warned other countries to avoid “fighting the division of the cold war”. His comments came two months after the US, UK and Australia formed a security agreement to help Canberra acquire nuclear-powered submarines. The move was designed to help strengthen its security in China as well as closer ties with the US.
Underscoring the growing concern in Taiwan, Peter Dutton, Australia’s security minister on Friday, said “it is”impossible”That Canberra will not support the US in any campaign to protect Taiwan in China.
“The fact that he spoke out loud is new and shows how China’s pressure is affecting security relations everywhere in Asia,” said Michael Green, former White House Asia adviser to George W Bush.
At the summit, Biden is expected to raise the issue of nuclear weapons, with the Pentagon warning China to do so. quadrupling its nuclear arsenal these ten years. But China has shown no interest in nuclear negotiations, mainly because the US has more weapons.
The US has a number of Chinese concerns, ranging from the oppression of the Uyghurs and the crackdown on pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong to the frustration with its trade practices. China wants the US to stop interfering in its “major” interests and to restore US-China relations to the days of non-alignment.
“Beijing intends to use this conference to inform its audience and the international community that US-China relations have returned,” said Bonnie Glaser, a Chinese specialist with the German Marshall Fund. “But Biden’s management wants to prevent the Chinese from playing in the summit if it restores relations.”
The conference will take place as all leaders face major political events in the coming year. Xi will have them Winter Olympics in Beijing in February and is planning to get a third term as party secretary general in November. Biden and Democrats are trying not to lose their leaders in Congress in the mid-November elections.
Myron Brilliant, head of state at the US Chamber of Commerce, said “high-level pragmatism is needed to move forward,” but added that it was unclear how this could be translated into a reality because of the political crisis.
“The Chinese may want to reduce the temperature,” Brilliant said, “but are they ready to take action on the most important issues for the Biden government? This is a big question.”
Zhu Feng, a specialist in foreign relations at Nanjing University, said he did not expect a positive development at the conference because of what he described as “increasing domestic politics” in both countries.
“What we can expect from the conference is for the two sides to understand each other again,” Zhu said.
Biden has taken steps to address the Chinese crisis, from promoting cooperation in Europe and Asia and imposing sanctions on Chinese officials for describing the oppression of the Uyghurs as “murder”.
He faced criticism if he was on the right track, because Xi has not changed. But US officials say Biden is focused on creating a global image in ways that could challenge China.
Carolyn Bartholomew, chair of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said it was also important to place more responsibility on Xi, not Biden, to change the reality if they wanted to have a good relationship.
“Xi should treat this conference as an opportunity for dignity and commitment to address the various problems that the US and other countries share,” Bartholomew said.
“[This includes] China is growing at the expense of Taiwan and Japan, continuing unfair economic and commercial practices such as coercion and extortion, violating the rights of the Uyghur people and other minorities, and violating human rights in Hong Kong. ”
But highlighting the dire nature of the relationship, Wu Xinbo, head of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, said Washington should not expect too much from Beijing which is so self-reliant.
“China’s comments on Biden have failed and the US has realized it needs to change,” Wu said. “I hope China will follow its principles and force the US to change.”
Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter
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