Applying business principles to smart results will be more difficult than Macron thinks

For weapons, citizens. Two years ago, the EU – led by Ursula von der Leyen who called itself the “geopolitical Commission” – adopted a goal of promoting “independence” in Europe around the world.

Despite being invited almost daily to Brussels, the idea remained elusive, even absurd. Meanwhile, the EU is facing real and real threats, with China blocking Export to Lithuania and Russia threaten to take over Ukraine. This could be a good time to turn the EU’s trade power into a solution to the oppressive regime.

Enter, to the sound of bedbugs and the beating of horse hooves, a team of horsemen led by Emmanuel Macron. The French president is leading a council of EU member states for the next six months – with the hope that he will be re-elected in April – and wants to address EU inequality and France’s threats to European power.

In essence, this is what the EU wants – leadership from a major country with its military, intelligence and diplomatic capabilities. Za ku council leadership, Macron begins to cry – “revival, power, presence”(“ Recovery, strength, resilience ”) – is the sound of change. It also aims to build a strong European alliance with its allies, following last September’s humiliation. avoidance and the Australian-UK-US-United States Security Council (Aukus) and its alliance on nuclear weapons.

It’s a good time, the EU is developing a new, effective trade tool “anti-forcing”A tool, which France wants to speed up. The tool will allow for faster repatriation by trade, finance and financial measures against the illegal coercion of foreign governments. In the future, it will hopefully prevent China from persecuting EU countries such as Lithuania.

But a number of threats prevent France from leading the reform of the EU’s trade policy.

The first is the inconsistency of foreign policy within the EU in China, Russia and the US. Macron often clashes with other countries in Eastern Europe, especially in the past conviction to President Vladimir Putin. As a result of the Russian war in Ukraine, the Russia-affiliated mercenaries was sent despite opposition to France in Mali, where France is blocking the peacekeeping force, which appears to have been a bad bet.

Similarly, despite criticizing China’s trade policy, Macron in 2020 unwisely succumbed to German influence to support EU-China alliance. The treaty, which has now been graciously terminated, has disrupted the EU and within Joe Biden’s incoming supervisors in the US by making Europe look weak.

Indeed, Macron’s skepticism in the US shows a keen interest in French interests, especially in the Aukus region. Considering the changes in Biden’s foreign policy and the potential for another Donald Trump administration, he speaks truthfully about the threat of Atlanticism. But some European countries, such as the Baltic States, have no confidence that the EU, with its limited arms and financial sanctions, can take over. The US is the largest producer in Russia this week’s talk in Geneva on European security: EU agencies are not invited. Assistance from other member states due to French outrage over the Aukus alliance was calm and quiet.

Second, France is often at a political risk at home to use trade as a very effective tool. A simple but symbolic way of punishing Australia for the Aukus would be to end the EU-New Zealand alliance, a country that bans nuclear submarines from its ports, and restricts Australia’s equal alliance. But both countries are exporters of cattle, the election of the French president is coming and the country’s cattle farmers are known to be noisy. Paris has decided to delay all these agreements until someone else’s problem.

Obviously, the term “independence” came to life as “independence”, but France last year vehemently opposed the cessation of free trade. There is concern among other member states that the anti-coercion tool that France strongly supports will be used as a defense rather than just for goals.

Finally, in order to achieve its ambitions in the EU, France needs Germany to step up. Macron was probably soft on Russia and China but Germany has confirmed so far mushy to the point of watering. German companies are rebuke Lithuanian protest in Beijing and is encouragement against China’s expulsion. Earlier this week, Philippe Léglise-Costa, France’s ambassador to the EU, appeared warmly on the Lithuanian conflict. Adauza and Brussels seminar that, while the member states should demonstrate a partnership with Vilnius, the EU should pursue trade violations through the channels contained in the World Trade Organization and find a way to negotiate.

The cases of French cavalry were good to watch, but in EU countries it is often publicized rather than executed. The charge for establishing additional powers in the EU is strong. But Macron’s ability to deliver will require more European unity and more domestic courage in France than is shown here.

alan.beattie@ft.com