About the Fed’s big pivot. . .

Good Morning. Acquisition reports are starting to move fast this week – big tech, big oil, big business, and so on. Will we be feeling better or worse off the economy and the market after we receive the news? Well, we think so, but we are open to other ideas: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com.

Pictures of trees change. A little.

One line we have repeated several times around these sections and that the bond market reflects confidence that inflation will end in a year or two, in particular, before declining. That confidence is beginning to fade. It is the investors who have been tampered with by the hawkish Federal Reserve (maybe soon, in our opinion), total yields increased last month:

As you can see above, the biggest tumor is in the middle of the tablet where the long part just touched (your friend called it an “anaconda”). This is reflected in the spread of 10-2 yields, which are the lowest since October 2020:

Although the 10-2 spread is both low and low, inflation, which peaked at the end of last year, is close to their November levels:

The steep, twisting of the harvest along with the rest period provides a clear, well-known story on Wall Street. It is said that the Fed’s tightening could either increase and deregulate the economy, or even better inflate inflation as inflation and demand levels gradually stabilize.

Here is Michael Pond and Jonathan Hill of Barclays making the case:

We believe that as the financial system becomes more volatile, smaller markets should be concerned and continue or beyond.

As a result, despite rising inflation, we expect markets to rise in price so that inflation will fall on its own as the (demand and supply) driven by the inflation epidemic ends, or will decline if the Fed makes a mistake. part of tightening the policy too fast, risking falling commodity prices and economic collapse.

Another interpretation is that the Advice market is empty, twisted and full of nonsense. Violation is the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury yields, or Treasury-protected Treasury. And Advice has been on the rise recently. After an increase of -0.85 percent since April 2020, the release of the 10-year Advice today yields -0.54%. If the Instructions are raised for some unnecessary reason, the distraction may be less.

We do not have a major decision. Thinking about prices, as we have done he realized, he wants to be very humble. But there is another hope to consider: that inflation is surprisingly low and the Fed is raising prices slowly. Until recently, markets have shown excessive bias in their expectations. This pattern can be easily repeated. The yellow beard on this Bank of America chart shows the prospects in the federal money market against the real blue-black price:

Fed officials see this seriously, though the markets are not. Atlanta Fed CEO Raphael Bostic also said more interview with FT published over the weekend which many took as a sign of hawkish. Although the Bostic could not stop the 50-point rise in March, it did not say that things were moving slowly (emphasis added):

“Every decision is on the table for every meeting,” Bostic said Friday. “If notices say that things have changed in the way that a move of 50 is required or [would] be right, then I’ll lean on it. . . If the move to consecutive meetings makes sense, I feel comfortable with that. . .

He also said that he was looking at the decline in consumer monthly prices and further evidence that inflation was not satisfying inflation in light of expectations for interest rates. He also said he was encouraged by the recent employment cost index (ECI) report, which was published on Friday following the pay and benefits of US employers, and expects a pay rise to improve.

Too much he means “every way is on the table” as a prediction of the hawkish Fed. This is a case of justice, but its risks are twofold. (Ethan Wu)

Ark Market

Cathie Wood he says new ones are for sale, which is somehow true. The technology ETF under review has dropped by 56 percent from its peak almost a year ago. But we wondered if this seemed to be true in looking at the whole bag and thinking about its components. So we ran the growth and accounting for all shares in the fund by the end of the year (thanks to Tiziana Antonietti of S&P Capital IQ for helping to establish).

Surprisingly, out of 50 shares, all but one – Intellia Therapeutics, which manufactures products using Crispr genetic engineering – has declined since last February. It is a complete wash, as the chart shows (the gold star identifying film on the head):

This may inspire some of you to make jokes about the ever-increasing genre of LOL @ Ark. That is not our answer. This chart shows us that recent sales in remote technologies have been as random as purchasing in 2020. Hence there may be some hidden flaws in here.

Whatever may be true of the companies in the portfolio, they are growing rapidly. Here is the growth of the annual income for those who have money (few do not have). The last five on the left have a few coins that are growing so fast that they lost the entire chart to include, so we cut the tips:

Buying goods is difficult. But we have come to the point where in the long-term technical market where consumers who like to grow up have to lick their chops. This is a little strange, depending on how the whole market has changed, but there it is.

A few examples of Ark companies that most people hear: Zoom increased its revenue by 35 percent in its last quarter, it is profitable, and its free investment exceeds its total revenue. Its share is 65 percent lower. Twitter shares have dropped by 40 percent, while they have grown significantly by about 40 percent. Spotify, down about 50 percent, grew 27 percent last quarter. We are not putting any of these things – we have not done the job – just to say that, here and there, there is an impressive force in companies whose shares have been beaten to hell.

It seems that the Ark will no longer touch its former peaks. But this might be a good time to get rid of the damage, exactly.

One more reading

There were several pieces of the best Ukrainian journalism in FT over the weekend. Ben Hall and Roman Olearchyk wrote works piece describing Ukrainian mixed media information about risk level. Serhii Plokhy’s story sets out the difficulties that have already taken place – the fall of the Soviet Union – and lighting because the allies of Ukraine must continue to lend the country “aid, politics and the military”.