Today it seems we are back in the days of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. Analyzing the Russian, Russian 1 and First Channel TV channels, one has no choice but to hear that it has been broadcast in the 1970s. Movies ranging from 1976, Irony of Fate, to 1967 comedy, Kidnapping, Caucasian Style, to, The Diamond Arm, the most successful song since 1969.
In celebration of the 30th anniversary of the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Russians are fed the nutritious food of the old days of order and peace.
The regression seems to be taking place in Moscow’s politics. The US-Russia summit is becoming more and more stable, with a return to the Cold War. On December 30, US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned to discuss Ukraine’s disputes. It says, each of them gave warnings to the other side but everywhere the words were “encouraging”.
The exchange came after a meeting between the two leaders via a video held on December 7 to discuss a number of issues, including Ukraine. Six months earlier he had held a face-to-face meeting in Geneva, prompting US and Russian ambassadors to return to the capital.
Communication has grown significantly in various states, as well. In early November, William Burns, the CIA chief and former ambassador to Russia, traveled to Moscow, where he met with Putin, Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin to discuss Ukraine’s conflict. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also linked Putin Yuriy Ushakov with foreign aid.
For the Kremlin, having a full interest in Biden is a win-win. It is a clear indication that the mobilization of troops and the threat of war in Ukraine works. For the past six years, Moscow has been frustrated by the end of the Ukrainian war. The Minsk II treaty established in 2015 and the French-German alliance failed to end the conflict.
Kyiv and Moscow are blaming each other for the lack of progress. The Russians say Ukraine has not fulfilled its commitment to implement the constitutional reforms in Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as a way to reunite them. The Ukrainian people, for their part, are blaming Russia for not allowing the Kyiv government to restore Russia and Ukraine’s borders.
To address this problem, the Kremlin wants to force a new deal and work through the US, through Paris and Berlin. The idea is that the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be handed over by a fait accompli and had no choice but to fall in line.
But in alliance with the US, Russia also raised concerns. On December 17, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced two agreements, one with the US and the other with NATO. They appealed to the Atlantic Alliance to nullify the promise made in Ukraine and Georgia in April 2008 that they would one day join them.
The plan also calls for NATO to withdraw troops from the east, which began following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Moscow also wants NATO to refrain from sending missiles near its borders.
Finally, the plan calls for an end to military aid in Ukraine, either provided by the US or through NATO, as well as a halt to co-operation on post-Soviet countries. In fact, Russia wants to turn the clock back in the late 1990s, pushing the West from Eastern Europe and tying its hegemonic positions into the so-called “near-outside”.
To achieve these goals, the Kremlin uses its military might. According to estimates, more than 100,000 Russian troops and powerful weapons are currently deployed near the Russian-Ukrainian border and on the Crimea Peninsula. The best part has been in operation since early 2021. The work against Ukraine, therefore, is not on the table. Putin may be a fool, but if he decides to go against his neighbor, he will have no problem.
The response of the US and its European allies has been to draw Russia to the negotiating table to resolve conflicts.
Following talks with Biden officials, at the end of December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that talks would take place on January 10. The Russia-NATO summit is being held two days later. While much of the Russian ideology did not originate in the West, engaging in dialogue is better than violence.
If all goes well, there may be some progress, especially on “deconfliction” in areas facing NATO and Russia, such as the Black and Baltic Seas. Over time, negotiations could provide legitimate security agreements for both parties and whether Ukraine and Georgia which, contrary to the Kremlin’s beliefs, have interests with their organization.
But honestly, there is a lot of skepticism. Some analysts feel that Russia’s publication of pre-emptive agreements, pre-negotiated talks, is a clever way to undermine the embassy’s legacy and create a pretext for fighting in Ukraine.
To win the game, the US and its allies must negotiate with the Russian people from a strong point of view. As in Brezhnev’s day, he should prevent Moscow from opening up negotiations. That is why, the US is talking to Putin that he is ready to raise economic sanctions – “like never before”, in Biden’s words – in the event of a war.
However, it is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. In France, President Emmanuel Macron has warned. Germany’s new ruling party in the middle left, the Greens and the Liberals, could be found to be divided on the issue, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz taking the lead and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock seeking a difficult answer. Undoubtedly, Russia will do all it can to exploit the political conflicts that may arise within NATO.
Meanwhile Putin’s approach is gaining momentum. Moscow has been working with Washington as an international partner. At some point, as the US prepares for China’s rise, this is no small feat. Brezhnev’s USSR may have already ended and modern Russia may be a pale shadow of its predecessors, but from the Kremlin, it is doing everything possible to remain in the game.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Al Jazeera.
