China released its figures for domestic growth on Monday during the difficult economic and political years for President Xi Jinping, who wants to become the leader of the Communist Party, the military and the government.
The party’s politburo last month emphasized the need for economic stability and economic stability, which has been hampered by the economic downturn. part of the property. But it did not show any intention to abandon the principles that have led to instability in Evergrande and other major manufacturers.
Establishing a balance between stability and financial control will test the Xi financial team, led by Vice-President Liu He, in the coming months.
Here are five things you should look for in a release.
Will the quarter and quarter growth be close to zero or more than 1 percent?
In each quarter, China’s economy grew by 0.2 percent in the first and third quarters of last year and 1.2 percent in the second quarter.
Quarterly and quarterly figures are more accurate in economic terms than annual figures, which have been reduced and returned due to the Covid-19 epidemic.
Annual growth for 2021 should exceed the target set by 6 percent. But another quarter-down reading will force Liu and the central bank, which he directs as head of the Standing Committee on Finance and Development of Governments, to do more to boost growth.
Does the segment of the property continue to deteriorate or become stable?
Prices for goods in 70 major Chinese cities fell 0.3 percent in November compared to October – the lowest monthly average for nearly six years.
This is in line with Xi’s promise to bring “well ordinary”In one of the most unequal countries in the world in terms of wealth distribution. But it could also lead to financial consequences that would not happen if the crashes were rapid.
The share is expected to exceed one-fourth of all financial assets. Its problems in recent months appear to be delaying the storage of valuables, which rose 5.2 percent annually from January to November.
This was slower than expected and less than 7.3 percent in September, when it became clear that the limits offered to manufacturers in 2020 could push Evergrande unchanged.
Is the party’s zero-Covid approach sustainable or is it about to bring illegal money into the economy?
China’s export sector has improved since the coronavirus epidemic broke out in the first half of 2020. Frequent closures in key production facilities and major ports for local groups have not diminished the growth of foreign trade, which has remained strong.
But this could change as Omicron’s variance could lead to more closures, which in turn has reduced consumer spending. Small businesses grew by 3.9 percent in November year-on-year, down from a growth rate of 4.7 percent.
This week Xi’an, the regional capital of 13m, and two small towns are completely closed. The other two major cities, Tianjin and Shenzhen, are forcing a slight closure to try the whole city.
The party, however, will not change its stance on the epidemic until a party meeting – scheduled for October or November – approves a third Xi term.
Will China’s increased pressure on the Chinese economy lead to a stronger financial response?
The central bank of China cut its one-year interest rate for the first time since April 2020 but with only five points. It has not changed the five-year benchmark used on house prices.
The People’s Bank of China has opted to use the price-cutting measures it wants to spend on areas that are more economically viable, such as agriculture and high-tech, instead of using “incentives like floods” that could undermine its efforts. in recent years to return Lots of debt.
Will China’s population growth ever exceed its expectations?
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to announce its estimates of the number of people born in 2021 – or the birth rate per 1,000 people. This dropped to 8.5 in 2020 from 10.5 last year, the first time the interest rate has dropped below 10.
China recorded 12m births, the lowest in 60 years, by 2020.
Source link
