China’s most important regions, including the capital of Beijing and its densely populated city, Shanghai, are expected to experience hot and dry weather, as well as heavy rainy months, a new study by Greenpeace shows weather disruptions due to climate change warned Wednesday.
Greenpeace East Asia says the risk of extreme heat and rain is now greater in densely populated cities but is growing rapidly in the fastest growing cities outside the major cities in the country.
This could mean exposure to dangerous waves for the elderly and those working outdoors as well severe flooding in cities such as Shanghai, Liu Junyan, director of the climate and energy project at Greenpeace in Beijing, said he was appealing to the authorities to take practical steps to address such situations.
“Urban areas do not understand the various changes, and what will affect the districts and how they can be prepared,” Liu told Al Jazeera.
The study found that Beijing was experiencing a “significant increase” in global warming, rising at a rate of 0.32 degrees Celsius (0.58 degrees Fahrenheit) every ten years, and a sharp increase in waves moving “sharply” since 2000.
Compared with the world’s highest expectation of global warming by the 2040s, global warming in some parts of Beijing could exceed 2.6C (4.7F) by 2100, and the temperature would be 28 days longer, the study added.
“For Beijing, we know that this hike will look like longer days with temperatures of 35 degrees [Celcius] or extreme heat, ”said Liu.
“Incidentally, a 2.6-degree rise means more exposure to hot waves. Older people are at risk, as do exhausted outdoor workers, such as construction workers and freight forwarders.”
In February this year, temperatures reached 25.5C (78F) in some areas – the highest in winter – according to weather forecasters and reports.
Greenpeace says summer will also work between 24 and 28 days in Shanghai and more than 40 days in the southern province of Guangdong. Areas in Shanghai and Guangdong provinces will also increase by 25%, while the northwest is experiencing a drought.
Greenpeace’s warnings follow the same studies highlighting the threat to China from the extreme heat related to climate change.
A July 2018 study published in the journal Nature Communications found that frequency and intensity of electric waves in China has “significantly increased” over the past 50 years. It also warned that some 400 million people in northern China, including Beijing, could be affected by as many as 2100 tsunamis.
A December 2020 report published by The Lancet, a leading medical journal, states that the death toll from China’s water crisis has risen “by four from 1990 to 2019, 26,800 deaths in 2019.”
Extremely destructive
On Monday, the magazine Frontiers in Sustainable Cities listed Beijing and Shanghai as some of China’s 23 cities in the 25 best cities in the world, producing 52% of the world’s warming air annually.
The list also includes Tokyo and Moscow. Cities in the US, Europe and Australia are still at the top of the list, although several Chinese cities such as Yinchuan and Dalian and Urumqi in Xinjiang also recorded the presence of almost everyone in the developed world, according to authors Sun Yat-sen University and Guangdong province.
In September 2020, President Xi Jinping said China wanted carbon dioxide emissions to a peak by 2030 and zero emissions by 2060, as part of a commitment to tackling climate change.
Guangzhou developed region, on the southern coast of China. became famous in the Greenpeace East Asia study, which found that 73 of the 98 tropical cyclones in the last 60 years in the region occurred after 1998.
The number of days in Guangzhou with high temperatures (35C / 95F or higher) has risen from 16.5 days a year to 23.7 days a year since then.
A Greenpeace study predicted that temperatures between the southernmost regions of Guangdong province could reach as high as 2C (35.6F), lasting summer for more than 40 days.
In May this year, warmer weather led to a power outage in Guangdong, prompting governments to restrict the use of electricity, which in turn affected production output.
“We were told to stop working two days a week, in accordance with the electricity regulations,” Miao, a worker at the region’s copper factory, told the Global Times newspaper. As a result, the access dates were delayed.
From extreme heat to flood
Due to the extreme heat, Guangdong province is also expected to experience flooding during the rainy months. In the southeastern part of the state, located in the city of Shenzhen, heavy rainfall could rise dramatically, with areas most affected by more than 25% rainfall, Greenpeace said.
Similarly, Shanghai and its region, where the Yangtze River flows, are also subject to the effects of heavy rainfall, which causes flooding.
From 1961 to 2019, the average rainfall in the Shanghai Yangtze Delta was 1225.6 mm (48.3 inches). Although it has fluctuated over the years, Greenpeace has said it has “increased” by 34.6 mm (1.4 inches) every ten years.
The year with the highest rainfall was 2016, with 1666.9 mm (65.6 inches) of total rainfall collected.
According to Greenpeace, the cities of Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, and Ningbo – the most populous and prosperous cities – are at high risk of heavy rainfall.
Aerial view of the Yangtze River in Wuhan in central China’s Hubei region during a flood of July 2020 [File: Stringer/China Out via AFP]
“Floods are already a major problem in Shanghai, and we can expect future floods as well as the catastrophic effects of floods,” Liu said.
In 2020, The floodwaters affected many cities along the Yangtze River, The longest river in Asia. According to a government survey, more than 140 people were killed, another 38 million were affected and 28,000 homes were destroyed by the 30-year-old floods.
OOther areas of China that have never experienced floods, such as Hotan, also known as Hetian, in Xinjiang, were also affected, Liu said.
Shanghai’s main city and its suburbs have also experienced heat waves.
In Hangzhou southwest of Shanghai, temperatures have risen to 35C (95F) or more than 429 in the last 60 years, with 177 (41% of the total) occurring since 2001.
The average temperature at Hangzhou Weather Station was 41.6C (106.88F) in 2013, followed by 41.3C Celcius (106.34F) in 2017.
Liu of Greenpeace said major Chinese cities should anticipate and prepare for climate change, adding that there is a need for “scientific and detailed research” on climate change.
He also said that small towns, where the worst weather is growing rapidly, also need to be prepared for more types of climate problems.
“Cities need to be fully monitored to create early warning systems for vulnerable people and the necessary infrastructure. The nature of science and principles should determine whether high-risk areas can receive the most appropriate care and attention in this regard, “Liu said.
