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Car manufacturers are no longer struggling to fit in with Tesla in the automotive technology industry, but are also working hard to get closer to manufacturing.
For years it has been speculated that big car manufacturers who build millions of fire trucks a year could improve their EV production – soon after the advent of battery technology and enough buyers showed interest.
But forecasts for the six major car groups by 2024 show this Volkswagen is the sole automaker on the way past Tesla on production EV. While others are expected to rapidly increase the number of EVs on sale, no one can get close to Tesla, according to predictions from Bernstein, IHS and EV-Volumes.com.
Last month, Elon Musk boasted that Tesla’s car production had risen by about 71% a year over the past decade. “I have confidence that I can keep things like this, at least 50 percent for a long time,” he said.
EVs are a big but growing thing. They only made up 3 percent of the global market by 2020 and Tesla provided nearly half a million cars. But it is expected to capture 11.4 percent of the global market this quarter, according to EV-Volumes.com, with Tesla making at a rate of about 1m a year and a factory near Berlin is coming online.
Between 2017 and 2020, production of Ford’s electric cars was less than 2 percent of Tesla. This year its volumes dropped due to the Mustang Mach-E. Its production by 2021 is 83,000, or 10 percent of Tesla, according to Bernstein. Ford also predicted this week that it would produce 600,000 EVs a year by the end of 2023 – still half of what Tesla had predicted. However, Bernstein predicts that the number will decrease and will be around 450,000.
So far, as Ford CEO Jim Farley told employees this month, the Tesla’s Model 3 is the best-selling car in Europe and the UK. “Not electricity. “Slowly,” he said.
In an attempt to close the gap, Ford has invested in starting Rivian electric cars, which account for 12.1% of the company. as it became clear last week. In the past, Ford has also said it plans to build a car using Rivian technology. However, in the interview published in Automotive News Friday, Farley said it would never happen again.
He told the magazine: “Compared with today when we made the original investment, much has changed: in our expertise, the company’s performance in all these cases, and now it is up to us to decide what to do.”
Volkswagen’s Herbert Diess has for many years been the only CEO to take Tesla seriously as an enemy. In 2017, as head of the VW brand, he developed a system called “Leapfrog” Tesla by 2025, outlining the valuable benefits of upgrading what would allow VW to make EVs “for millions, not millions”.
Koma VW advances are mixed. Bernstein is making the group sell 450,000 EVs this year, close to the original target of 600,000, probably due to a semiconductor reduction, which did not affect Tesla significantly.
“This year is not the end of the world and it is not a cause for celebration,” said Bernstein’s Arndt Ellinghorst, who expects VW Group to sell Tesla in EVs in early 2024.
For BMW and Mercedes, the world’s top car manufacturers, their combined production of EVs is less than one-fifth of Tesla this year, although Mercedes has launched its flagship S-Class, similar to the EQS.
Some of these may be due to inability to stop making high-end cars. Earlier this year, Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler said the petrol and diesel models was a “money-making machine” which can help fund the transition to a cleaner routine.
BMW has also expressed doubts about the growth of the electric car market and highlighted its potential to generate revenue and maintain profit margins by acting with extreme caution.
But Diess acknowledged that Tesla was “setting a standard” for manufacturing. In an ongoing dispute with VW’s powerful corporations, he claimed that Tesla was building a car within 10 hours, while VW needed 30 hours to produce its ID. 3 and ID. 4 examples.
“We think Tesla has a lot of advantages, a lot of integration and a lot of power in the delivery system,” said Viktor Irle, CEO of EV-Volumes.com.
Irle also thanks Tesla for its easy design. Tesla has only four colors in its history and for many years this year only Y and 3 models were produced in large quantities when S and X were revived. In contrast, VW has more than 20 EVs on the market.
Irle has little hope if others can catch Tesla in the future. “Tesla is growing slowly, but wisely it is growing bigger,” he said. “We do not see anyone passing Tesla on sales until 2026.”
additional reports of Dave Lee in San Francisco
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