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Mikangano yokhudza ukadaulo ndi kupita patsogolo nthawi zambiri imakhala yolembedwa potengera “chiyembekezo” motsutsana ndi “chiyembekezo.” Mwachitsanzo, Steven Pinker, Matt Ridley, Johan Norberg, Max Roser, ndi malemu Hans Rosling amatchedwa “New Optimists” chifukwa chakuyang’ana kwawo patsogolo pazachuma, zasayansi, komanso chikhalidwe cha anthu mzaka mazana awiri zapitazi. Otsutsa awo, monga David Runciman ndi Jason Hickel, akuwadzudzula kuti sazindikira mavuto enieni padziko lapansi, monga umphawi, komanso zoopsa za tsoka, monga nkhondo ya zida za nyukiliya.
Wolemba mbiri yachuma Robert Gordon amadzitcha “mneneri wa chiyembekezo. ” Bukhu lake Kukula ndi Kugwa kwa Kukula kwa America anachenjeza kuti masiku akuchuluka kwachuma atha ku United States ndipo sadzabwerera. Otsutsa a Gordon akuphatikizanso gulu lomwe amawatcha “techno-optimists,” monga Andrew McAfee ndi Erik Brynjolfsson, omwe ananeneratu kukula kwakukula pantchito kuchokera kuukadaulo wazidziwitso.
Ndikoyesa kusankha mbali. Koma ngakhale kuli koyenera kukhala ndi chiyembekezo kapena chiyembekezo chilichonse pankhaniyi, mawuwa ndiopanda tanthauzo kuti angalandiridwe ngati ambiri kudziwika waluntha. Anthu omwe amadziwika kuti ali ndi chiyembekezo atha kuthamangira kunyalanyaza kapena kunyalanyaza zovuta zaukadaulo, pomwe akatswiri odziwika kuti ndiukadaulo kapena opitilira patsogolo amakayikira kwambiri kukhulupirira mayankho.
Pomwe tikuyembekezera kuchira kwa mliriwu, tikukhudzidwanso pakati pa omwe akuyembekeza chiyembekezo, omwe akuwonetsa matenda onse omwe atha kumenyedwa kudzera mu katemera watsopano, komanso osowa chiyembekezo, omwe amachenjeza kuti anthu sadzapambana mpikisano wolimbana ndi tizilombo toyambitsa matenda. Koma izi zikuyimira chisankho chabodza. Mbiriyakale imatipatsa zitsanzo zamphamvu za anthu omwe anali owona mtima mwankhanza podziwa zovuta koma nawonso anali ofunitsitsa kupeza mayankho.
Kumapeto kwa zaka za m’ma 1800, William Crookes — wasayansi, wasayansi, ndiponso wopanga chubu chotchedwa Crookes chubu (mtundu woyambirira wa chidebe chopuma) —anali pulezidenti wa bungwe la British Association for the Advancement of Science. Pa Seputembala 7, 1898, adagwiritsa ntchito mwambo adilesi yapachaka kwa bungweli kuti apereke chenjezo lowopsa.
A British Isles, adati, ali pachiwopsezo chachikulu chakusowa chakudya. Kulingalira kwake kunali kosavuta: kuchuluka kwa anthu kumakulirakulira, koma kuchuluka kwa malo olimidwa sikadatha kuyenda. Njira yokhayo yopitilira kuonjezera zokolola inali kukonza zokolola. Koma cholepheretsa zokolola chinali kupezeka kwa feteleza wa nayitrogeni, ndipo magwero a nayitrogeni, monga miyala yamchere ya m’chipululu cha Chile ndi ma guano azilumba za Peru, anali kutha. Mtsutso wake udafotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane komanso mokwanira, kutengera ziwerengero zakapangidwe ka tirigu komanso kupezeka kwa nthaka kuchokera kumayiko onse akuluakulu aku Europe komanso koloni; adapepesa pasadakhale chifukwa chododometsa omvera ake ndi ziwerengero.
Adadzudzula kuwononga “mopitilira muyeso” kwa zinthu zosapezekanso za nayitrogeni. Kwa iwo omwe amayang’ana mwachisawawa zaka zaposachedwa zokolola, zomwe zinali zokwanira, adati zaka zimenezo zidabala zipatso modabwitsa, zomwe zidasokoneza vutoli. Kuchuluka kwa chuma cham’mbuyomu sikunali chitsimikizo cha kutukuka mtsogolo.
Tinganene kuti, achi Crookes anali “oopsa”. Cholinga chake chinali kuwonetsa vuto lomwe lidayambitsidwa ndi kupita patsogolo komanso kukula. Anayesetsa kutsegula maso a anthu omwe anali osasangalala. Anayamba ndi kunena kuti “England ndi mayiko onse otukuka ali pachiwopsezo chachikulu,” mosiyanasiyana akunena za “vuto lalikulu” la “kufunika kofulumira,” “tsoka lomwe likuyandikira,” komanso “funso la moyo ndi imfa m’mibadwo ikubwerayi. . ” Kwa iwo omwe angamunene kuti ndiwopseza, adaumiriza kuti uthenga wakewo “unali wozikika.”
Ma Crookes adapangitsa chidwi, ndipo otsutsa ambiri adatsutsa uthenga wake. Ananenanso kuti tirigu sanali chakudya chokhacho, kuti anthu azidya mopepuka ngati kuli kofunikira, ndikuti nthaka ya tirigu ikhoza kutengedwa kuchokera pazomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga nyama ndi mkaka, makamaka mitengo ikakwera. Iwo adati adanyoza mwayiwo Alimi aku America kuti apereke chakudya kumaiko ena, mwa kusintha njira zawo nthaka ndi nyengo kuti ziwonjezere kupanga.
Kulemba mu Chilengedwe mu 1899, R. R. Giffen anayerekezera ma Crooke ndi a Thomas Malthus, ndi ena omwe adaneneratu zakusowa kwa zinthu zosiyanasiyana zachilengedwe monga Eduard Suess, yemwe adanena kuti golidi akanatha, ndi William Stanley Jevons, yemwe anachenjeza za Peak Coal. Mawu a Giffen atopa chifukwa akuti “pakhala pali zambiri zokambirana izi kuyambira nthawi ya Malthus.” Nthawi iliyonse, akufotokoza, sitinathe kuneneratu chifukwa malire omwe akuyembekezereka pakukula kwambiri mtsogolo, kapena sitidziwa zochepa pazomwe zimayambitsa.
Koma Crookes anali cholinga nthawi zonse mawu ake amatenga “chenjezo osati ulosi.” M’kalankhulidwe kake, adati:
“Ndi katswiri wamagetsi amene akuyenera kutithandiza… Tisanavutike ndi njala katswiri wamagetsi alowererapo ndikuzengereza tsiku lanjala kufikira nthawi yayitali kwambiri yomwe ife ndi ana athu ndi zidzukulu zathu titha kukhala mosavomerezeka za m’tsogolo. ”
Cholinga cha a Crookes chinali choti atengeko nayitrogeni wopanda malire: mlengalenga. Zomera sizingagwiritse ntchito nayitrogeni m’mlengalenga mwachindunji; m’malo mwake, amagwiritsa ntchito mankhwala ena okhala ndi nayitrogeni, omwe mwachilengedwe amapangidwa kuchokera ku nayitrogeni wam’mlengalenga ndi mabakiteriya ena, njira yotchedwa fixation. Crookes adanena kuti kupanga kwa nayitrogeni m’mlengalenga “ndi chimodzi mwazinthu zazikulu zomwe akuyembekeza luso la akatswiri amisili,” ndipo anali ndi chiyembekezo kuti zichitika posachedwa, kuzitcha “funso lakutali kwambiri.”
Adapereka gawo lalikulu pakulankhula kwake kuti awone yankho ili. Ananenanso kuti nayitrogeni amatha kuwotchedwa kutentha kokwanira kuti apange mankhwala a nitrate, ndikuti izi zitha kuchitika pogwiritsa ntchito magetsi. Anaganiziranso zambiri, monga mtengo wa nitrate wopangidwa motere, womwe unali wopikisana pamitengo yamsika, komanso ngati njirayi ingakwezeke mpaka mafakitale: chomera chatsopano chopangira magetsi ku Niagara Falls, adamaliza, ndicho chokha chomwe chingapereke magetsi onse amafunikira kuti apange mpata womwe anali ataneneratu.
Crookes ankadziwa kuti feteleza wopangira sinali yankho lokhalitsa, koma anali wokhutira kuti vutoli likadzapezekanso mtsogolo, omutsatira adzatha kuthana nalo. Kuwopsa kwake sikunali kwanzeru, koma kotsutsana. Zinthu zenizeni zitasinthidwa ndikupanga ukadaulo woyenera, anali wokondwa kuyimitsa alamu.
Kodi Crookes zinali zolondola? Pofika 1931, chaka chomwe adanena kuti chakudya chidzatha, zinali zowonekeratu kuti maulosi ake anali osakwanira. Zokolola zinali zitachuluka, koma ayi chifukwa zokolola zimayenda bwino kwambiri. M’malo mwake, acreage anali atawonjezeka, pamlingo wina, ma Crooke anali kuganiza kuti sizingatheke. Izi zidachitika chifukwa chakukula kwamakina, kuphatikiza thalakitala wamagesi. Makinawa adachepetsa mitengo yantchito, yomwe idapangitsa kuti mayiko opindulira pang’ono azipindula. Nthawi zambiri zimachitika, yankho limachokera kwina komwe silimayembekezereka, kuwononga malingaliro a olosera zamtsogolo komanso chiyembekezo.
Koma ngati ma Crookes sanali olondola pakulosera kwake mwatsatanetsatane, anali wolondola kwenikweni. Mfundo zake ziwiri zazikulu zinali zolondola: chimodzi, kuti chakudya chonse komanso zokolola makamaka zinali mavuto omwe amayenera kuwerengedwa m’badwo wotsatira kapena apo; ziwiri, feteleza wokutirayo wochokera pakukhazikika kwa nayitrogeni wam’mlengalenga ikhoza kukhala gawo lofunika kwambiri yankho.
Pasanathe zaka makumi awiri atalankhula, katswiri wazamalonda waku Germany a Fritz Haber komanso wamalonda Carl Bosch adapanga njira yopangira ammonia kuchokera mumlengalenga wa nayitrogeni ndi wa hydrogen. Amoniya ndi mankhwala omwe amapangira feteleza, ndipo njira ya Haber-Bosch ndi imodzi mwazinthu zofunikira kwambiri masiku ano, zopatsa feteleza pafupifupi theka la chakudya padziko lapansi.
Katswiri wamagetsi, pamapeto pake, anachita bwerani mudzandipulumutse.
Kodi anthu aku Croatia anali ndi chiyembekezo kapena chiyembekezo? Anali wokayika za vutoli — sanali wonyalanyaza. Koma anali ndi chiyembekezo chopeza yankho-analinso wosagonjetsedwa.
M’zaka za zana la 20, mantha akuchulukirachulukira komanso chakudya chayambiranso. Mu 1965, chiŵerengero cha anthu padziko lonse chinawonjezeka kwambiri kuposa 2% pachaka, yokwanira kuwirikiza kawiri pazaka 35 zilizonse; ndipo chakumapeto kwa 1970, akuti, oposa theka la anthu akumayiko omwe akutukuka kumene analibe chakudya chokwanira.
Buku la 1968 Bomba la Anthu, Wolemba Paul ndi Anne Ehrlich, adatsegulidwa ndi mayitanidwe oti agonjere: “Nkhondo yodyetsa anthu onse yatha. M’zaka za m’ma 1970 anthu mamiliyoni mazana ambiri adzafa ndi njala ngakhale pali mapulogalamu aliwonse omwe awonongeka pano. Pakadali pano palibe chomwe chingaletse kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa anthu omwalira padziko lapansi. ” Mu 1970, Paul Ehrlich adalimbikitsa kugonja, akunena kuti m’zaka zochepa “zoyesayesa zina zidzakhala zopanda pake” komanso “mutha kudzisamalira nokha ndi anzanu ndikusangalala ndi kanthawi kamene kamatsalira.” Chifukwa adawona kuti izi sizabwino, a Ehrlichs zothandizidwa lingaliro lakuchepetsa thandizo kumayiko monga India omwe amawoneka kuti sakuchita mokwanira kuletsa kuchuluka kwa anthu.
Mwamwayi ku India komanso padziko lonse lapansi, ena sanali okonzeka kusiya. Norman Borlaug, akugwira ntchito ku Mexico mu pulogalamu yothandizidwa ndi Rockefeller Institute, adapanga tirigu wamtundu wambiri omwe amalimbana ndi matenda a fungus, amagwiritsa ntchito feteleza moyenera, ndipo amatha kumera paliponse. M’zaka za m’ma 1960, chifukwa cha chimanga chatsopano, Mexico idadzisintha kukhala wogulitsa kunja kukhala wogulitsa tirigu ndipo India ndi Pakistan zidachulukitsa zokolola zawo, ndikuletsa njala yomwe a Ehrlichs adawona kuti ndi yosapeweka.
Komabe ngakhale atapambana Nobel Peace Prize pazomwe adachita, Borlaug sanaiwale zovuta zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ulimi uzipitilira kuchuluka kwa anthu, ndipo sanaganizirepo kuti ungathetsedwe bwino. Mwa iye 1970 Kuwerenga kwa Nobel, adati kuwonjezeka kwa kapangidwe ka zakudya ndi “kocheperako potengera zosowa zonse” ndipo, akuwonetsa kuti theka la anthu padziko lapansi alibe chakudya chokwanira, adati “palibe malo omwe atsala osadandaula.” Anachenjeza kuti “anthu ambiri akulephera kuzindikira kukula ndi kuopsa kwa ‘Chilombo cha Anthu.’” Anapitiliza kuti, “Ndikukhulupirira tsogolo la anthu.” Borlaug anali ndi chidaliro kuti malingaliro amunthu pamapeto pake adzabweretsa chiwongolero cha anthu (ndipo zowonadi, kubadwa kwa padziko lonse lapansi yakhala ikuchepa kuyambira pamenepo).
Kuopsa kokhala ndi malingaliro “okhulupirira” kapena “opanda chiyembekezo” ndiko kuyesa kutenga mbali pankhaniyo kutengera momwe zinthu ziliri, m’malo mongopanga lingaliro potengera zomwe zachitikazo. “Osadandaula,” akutero chiyembekezo; “Landirani zovuta,” akutero wotsutsa.
Sitiyenera kukhala otsimikiza kapena osataya chiyembekezo, koma othetsa mavuto.
Titha kuwona izi zikusewera pamikangano yokhudza covid ndi kutsekeka, kusintha kwanyengo ndi kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka mphamvu, lonjezo ndi kuwopsa kwa mphamvu za nyukiliya, komanso zakukula kwachuma komanso kugwiritsa ntchito chuma. Pamene zokambiranazo zikukula, mbali iliyonse imalowerera mu: “ochita zabwino” amafunsa ngati chiwopsezo ndichowona; “osataya chiyembekezo” amanyoza mayankho aliwonse amtundu waukadaulo ngati njira yongonamizira yomwe imangotilola kupereka zifukwa zolepheretsa zovuta zomwe sizingapeweke. (Mwa chitsanzo cha omalizawa, onani zifukwa “zowononga machitidwe” zotsutsana ndi geoengineering ngati njira yothanirana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo.)
Kuti tivomereze zenizeni za mavuto komanso kuthekera kuwathetsa, sitiyenera kukhala otsimikiza kapena osataya mtima, koma othetsa mavuto.
Mawu oti “kuthana ndi mavuto,” omwe nthawi zambiri amatchedwa “njira zothetsera mavuto,” agwiritsidwa ntchito kuyambira m’ma 1960 kutanthauza chikhulupiliro chakuti vuto lililonse lingathe kuthetsedwa ndi ukadaulo. Izi ndizolakwika, chifukwa chake “kuthana ndi mavuto” yakhala nthawi yakuseka. Koma ngati titaya malingaliro aliwonse amomwe mayankho akuyenera kukhalira, titha kunena kuti zikungotanthauza kukhulupirira kuti mavuto ali zenizeni, koma zosunthika.
Othandizira atha kuwoneka ngati achidaliro chifukwa njira zothetsera mavuto ndizabwino. Imalimbikitsa mwamphamvu kuthana ndi mavuto, osabwerera m’mbuyo kapena kudzipereka. Koma zili kutali ndi a Panglossian, “zonse zili zabwino” monga momwe ziliri ndi chiyembekezo chatsiku lomaliza. Ndi njira yachitatu yomwe imapewa kudzidalira komanso kugonja, ndipo tiyenera kuvala dzinalo modzikuza.
Jason Crawford ndi mlembi wa Mizu Yopita Patsogolo, tsamba lofotokoza zaukadaulo ndi mafakitale.
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