Why is Turkey trying to intervene in the Ukraine-Russia crisis? | | Stories

Istanbul, Turkey – Turkey hopes to help resolve tensions between NATO and Russia allies over the Ukraine crisis, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet with colleagues on both sides of the conflict in the coming weeks.

Turkey was “ready to do whatever it takes” to avoid war, Erdogan said on Wednesday night in a televised address.

“I believe that Russia will not go to war or take over Ukraine. Such a move would not be wise in Russia or the region,” he said. “There is a need for dialogue in which to obey Russia and alleviate their security concerns.”

For months, Ankara has been calling on NATO and Russia to reduce their tensions.

Erdogan they meet frequently talking on the phone with Putin, and on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian leader was ready to travel to Turkey, although the exact time of the visit was still in preparation and concerns about coronavirus.

Meanwhile, Erdogan is already planning to travel to Kyiv sometime in February, to meet with President Voldomyr Zelenskyy.

Russia has established 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian borderr, raising fears among NATO members that Putin is planning an offensive, in particular, to occupy the predominantly Russian-occupied eastern regions, where Moscow had previously tried to assert its influence.

Moscow says it has no plans to launch such an attack, and instead has asked NATO to prevent Ukraine from joining the alliance, ensuring that missiles and other weapons are not placed near its borders – which Washington and the alliance have rejected. .

‘Concerns that are legitimate’

“Because of geography and history, and beyond, to a large extent, on economic, security, and security issues, Turkey has a role to play in Russia and Ukraine, or their representations,” said Alper Coşkun, a senior official. at the Carnegie Endowment, and the former Turkish ambassador to Azerbaijan.

By making a point of reaching both sides, Coskun said, Turkey is making sure it seems to play a role in the crisis.

Turkey and set in Ukrainian defense companies, having sold Bayraktar TB2 drones since 2019, which Kyiv sent and used to attack Russian troops in the Donbas in recent months.

The use of Turkish drones was widely criticized in Moscow, when Putin told Erdogan by phone in December that Ankara had engaged in “disruptive” and “destructive” attacks.

Turkish officials have also said they should not be held accountable for Ukraine’s dealings with drones; Ankara has signed agreements to sell more drones in Kyiv and commit to co-production.

In September, Turkish drone manufacturer Bayraktar signed an agreement to build a TB2 factory near the Ukrainian capital, and in December, Ukrainian officials announced plans to launch a long-range Anka drone, manufactured by Turkey Aerospace Industries, in the country. , is a Ukrainian engine.

Immediately, Turkey is affected and Russia in several wars. In Syria, Turkey and Russia combine military alliances with a war-torn alliance in a very difficult dance where US, Iranian, Kurdish, and Syrian forces often cross paths.

In Libya, Turkey has backed a United Nations-backed government that is fighting Russian-backed groups.

Turkey too economically dependent in Russia, with millions of Russian tourists bringing in foreign exchange that is needed every year in the country, and Ankara relies heavily on natural gas from Russian suppliers.

There is also a very real impact of Turkish geography: under the Montreux Convention of 1936, it is necessary to ensure that you are heading to the Black Sea not only for Russian ships, but also for those who will be able to cross the river. wars, including Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria.

As the second largest military force in NATO, Turkey will be at the forefront of any war effort by Russia.

Good performance

“Turkey does not want to be placed in a decision-making position between Russia and Ukraine, because it has relations with Russia in other theaters, especially in Syria, where it relies on Russia to end the crisis and prevent it from escalating,” he said. Sinan Ulgen, former ambassador and director of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies.

He added that Turkey was also in need of Ukraine, “where there is a greater ties that focus on the security industry”.

Meanwhile, Turkey has made significant strides in Russia’s growth in the region.

At the time of 2008 Russian intervention in the territories of Georgia South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Turkey refused to lift restrictions on the size and number of US warships that would allow the Bosphorus to enter the Black Sea and meet Russia.

This was despite the fact that Turkey, as a NATO member state, had supporting programs to train and provide Georgian weapons with the alliance.

After 2014, after Russia invaded Crimea, Turkey refused to comply with US and European Union sanctions on Russia.

Since then Turkey has refused, along with NATO allies, to recognize Russia’s legitimacy – but has not yet implemented sanctions against the Moscow government over its activities.

Russia’s rhetoric should change if a NATO-led war breaks out, Ulgen said.

“If there are issues of conflict, Turkey will be forced to comply with the sanctions plan first, and this would be the case. [be] It’s a big problem, ”said Ulgen. “And the second major problem could be the ongoing relationship with Ukraine, in particular, whether Turkey continues to provide weapons or not. and all of them could put Turkey in a dungeon in one prison. ”

While Erdogan will not touch NATO on Russia’s demands such as barring Ukraine from participating in it, Coşkun said he could play a key role in sparking controversy over what seems to be Putin’s most serious problem: the security crisis in Europe near Russia’s borders.

“The fact that we are discussing all of this right now, is … as a development [Russia] it seems like it wants to, “Coşkun said. If it is a kinetic war, and to advance its existence and rule of the Donbas, it is difficult to abandon it.

“But if there are a lot of causes, in fact, a deep-seated conflict over Euro-Atlantic security, and how we can build the structures that we will continue to, perhaps, have our own disunity, but we can keep the peace – then it ‘s something. That Turkey can help.”