Russia pounds Ukrainian cities as Moscow makes new offer on escape routes

Russia kept up its grinding artillery assault on Ukraine’s cities overnight, as Moscow warned the west that bans on its energy exports would lead to a “catastrophic” rise in oil price to $ 300 a barrel.

After almost two weeks of fierce fighting, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has devastated cities, created 1.7mn refugees and shaken markets, fueling concerns that a commodity crunch could hit the world economy.

While Russia again pledged to create conditions to allow civilians to escape cities on Tuesday morning, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky expressed scepticism, dismissing Moscow’s previous offers as “cynicism” and “propaganda”. The two sides met for talks on Monday but made no significant breakthrough.

Volatile oil markets were relatively calm on Tuesday after being rattled by a US push for restrictions on Russian crude exports, a measure Germany has opposed because it would be unsustainable and too costly for Europe’s economy.

Directly addressing the potential ban, Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak warned on Monday night that it could cause oil prices to more than double to $ 300 a barrel. He also said Russia had the option of switching off gas supplies to Europe via the original Nord Stream pipeline, but had chosen not to so far, as “no one will benefit from it”.

Commodity markets continued to be unsettled, with wheat and nickel futures jumping to record highs in trading on Tuesday morning over the war’s potential fallout.

Wheat futures rose as much as 5.4 per cent to $ 13.63 a bushel in early trading on Tuesday before pulling back to be down 2 per cent, according to Bloomberg data.

The benchmark nickel contract jumped more than 13 per cent to a record high of $ 57,000 a tonne, according to Reuters, having risen more than 70 per cent to $ 50,300 during the previous trading session.

In a show of defiance, Zelensky praised the Ukrainians for their “courage” and “dignity” in a night-time address shot while standing in front of the window of his office on Kyiv’s Bankova Street.

Several Ukrainian towns and cities remain under siege conditions, with the southern city of Mariupol hardest hit. Encircled by Russian forces for almost a week, the city is facing shortages of water, electricity, food and medicines, according to Ukrainian and UN aid officials. Some 200,000 residents are trying to flee the city, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Despite deteriorating conditions on the ground, Russia has failed for three days to enforce a promised ceasefire or provide viable evacuation corridors for civilians from frontline cities, while blaming Ukraine for violations.

French president Emmanuel Macron described Russia’s proposals for humanitarian corridors as “cynical”.

“There was an agreement on humanitarian corridors,” Zelensky said. “Did this agreement work? Russian tanks and mines worked instead. ”

Moscow again said safe routes would be available on Tuesday allowing civilians to escape cities including Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy and Mariupol. But unlike Monday’s proposal for so-called “humanitarian corridors”, which offered fleeing Ukrainians passage out to either Russia or Belarus, Russian officials said they were willing to offer other routes if agreed with Ukraine.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians continue to flee Ukraine every day, with the UN estimating that a total of more than 1.7mn have sought refuge in neighboring countries already. EU officials said they expected as many as 5mn refugees, in what would be one of the biggest movements of people across Europe in half a century.

Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday morning that Russian troops continued their offensive, but the pace of their advance had slowed significantly.

This echoed an earlier assessment by the US Pentagon that Russian troops had failed to make “any noteworthy progress” in seizing territory, and so were relying more on long-range missile and artillery strikes on cities they had not yet reached.

US officials said Russian troops were continuing to advance in southern Ukraine, tightening their grip around Mariupol and moving closer to the port city of Odesa. Fierce fighting also continues around the southern city of Mykolaiv as Russia attempts to take control of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.

But Russian forces were largely stymied in the north, where they are attempting to encircle Kyiv. “As they continue to get frustrated, they continue to rely more on what we would call long-range fires. . . missile strikes, long-range artillery into city centers that they aren’t in yet, “said John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman.

Some military analysts and western officials believe Russia is replenishing supplies, attempting to address logistical problems and consolidating its positions around Kyiv before launching a concerted offensive.

Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended a third round of talks on Monday evening with no signs of significant progress. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, said there had been some “small positive developments” in discussions on the conditions for so-called “humanitarian corridors”.

But Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation to the talks, told the Russian news agency Interfax they “were not easy”, “fell short of [Russia’s] expectations ”and that it was“ too soon to talk of something positive ”.

The UN nuclear watchdog continued to warn of the risks to Ukrainian nuclear sites from the conflict, noting it had been informed a research facility had been damaged in Kharkiv in an incident that did not increase radiation levels.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said: “We must take action to help avert a nuclear accident in Ukraine that could have serious consequences for public health and the environment. We can’t afford to wait. ”